Folding one of the best bluffcatchers?
Posted by EdgeKing
Posted by
EdgeKing
posted in
Low Stakes
Folding one of the best bluffcatchers?
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players)
BN: $44.12
SB: $56.16
BB: $121.90
UTG: $31.37
MP: $126.33
CO: $285.57 (Hero)
SB: $56.16
BB: $121.90
UTG: $31.37
MP: $126.33
CO: $285.57 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.75)
Hero is CO with
Q
A
J
8
, , , , ,
Flop
($5.75)
9
8
T
, , , ,
Turn
($12.65)
9
8
T
8
,
River
($30.77)
9
8
T
8
7
,
Final Pot
MP wins $29.39
Rake is $1.38
Rake is $1.38
BU is really tight and SB is recreational, I think it's just fine to flat, might fold in different lineups.
MP is imo one of the better regs at Zoom50, opens around 25% in MP, maybe a bit tighter with me behind.
I kinda have one of the better bluffcatchers (guess 87** and T9+straight are evenly good), but especially on a 7 I dont see him have many pure 8x that he is c/c flop with. Bare T9 is of course an option, but I think he is smart enough to c/r that instead of leading, and also might use a bit bigger sizing, especially on the river.
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Before you think about how strong your bluff catcher is, you really need to think about how many bluffs your opponent has in the first place. I don't think many players try to represent board pairing cards, because people don't really give anyone much credit for a full house. To me it looks fairly unlikely that you're up against a bluff here. Turn is probably an ok call, but river should be an easy fold.
Despite the ridiculously good odds you're getting on river, I definitely agree with jonna about turn call river fold. Given he's one of the better regs at 50zoom this seems like a super exploitive line he's designed for the recreational players (and 50zoom is littered with them) who won't ever fold their straights but will completely stop betting at the turn and stubbornly call river all day.
pretty much exactly my thoughts during the hand, also jonna's point made me think about folding the river the most when using my timebank. The fact that it's difficult for him to come up with bluffs on that card (almost no bare 8x left he's c/c the flop with) and the sizing makes no sense given that he polarizes himself I think the fold is pretty easy, almost no matter how high I am in my range here or how well I'm blocking his valuerange.
I've been going through this hand with some of my friends and we came to the conclusion that it's likely more of a blockingbet/"thin" valuebet with 87 that he was bluffing turn with (J87 and 876 seems somewhat reasonable)
3betting pre is a good option, we shouldn't get 3b against a 25% opener and we block lots of 4betting hands. I probably prefer 3betting to flatting.
I'd start with betting bigger on flop. River seems a fold because it's not a good spot for him to be bluffing.
I 3bet most of my AQJT and some of my AQJ9, AQJ8 (especially without nutsuit) is usually in my callingrange to have some strong highcards in my flattingrange.Especially with the fact that people don't care much about 3bets and still coldcall many nutsuit hands against them at 50pl and us not pushing an equity edge (or not a big one, depending on how his openingrange is structured) I don't see much reason for a 3bet, but happy to learn something new :)
On flop I don't see much of a reason to go bigger on a lockdown board, especially with 2 regulars in the hand.
a) AQJ8 type of hands with non-nut suit don't play well in MW pots. And if someone behind you does squeeze, it gets trickier.
b) This flop connects with most opening/flatting range very well, and thus is not a truly locked down board. Pair + OESD might not be folding yet. Two pairs neither. And of course, straights are not folding to most bet sizings.
If this were a board where I would like to c-bet a lot, betting small(er) with a wide range makes some sense. However, T98r is not such a board against 2 opponents.
Bet flop bigger, if they wanna continue your sizing doesn't matter
Your reasoning doesn't make sense. If the sizing of cbetting doesn't change their continuing range, we should bet smaller imo.
I think the difference for you is that ananymous is looking at this spot with our hand while you are looking at it with our range. My usual sizing here is actually smaller, but for some reason I went with 60% (which is smaller than my normal stabbing size on wet/non-lockdown boards anyway)
Haru why?
$5 on the flop seems good. For this price I am not laying down this hand, he can turn a lot of made hands into a bluff since your turn calling range should have a lot of straights that barely can call twice, so he gets a cheap price on his bluffs.
What made hands is he turning into a bluff though?
Any 2 pair combos from his flop calling range beats us, except T9. Any non nut straight combos from his flop calling range also contains enough T8, 98, 87.
Our range is also uncapped on all streets. We do have a lot of straights in our range, but if hero is c-betting flop with a merged range which I expect most regs are then we have tons of FH and trips in our turn calling range also.
So if villain is a good thinking player as OP suggests then he will understand this is not a great bluffing spot against hero's range. Also do we think he's betting turn and river polarized or merged? Neither will have enough bluffs and even though we're getting a good price to call, I think we just won't have the best hand often enough.
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