fold AAQ2 single suited preflop???
Posted by bobo8877bobo
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bobo8877bobo
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High Stakes
fold AAQ2 single suited preflop???
in live 5/10 , very deep game on the button I had AAQ2 ss , under the gun (aggresive player, who saw almost every flop)(2500) limp ,next from middle one short stack(550) raise to 35, cut of(5000) 3-bet to 105, I(4000)-call, under the gun-call, and the short stack push all-in, next cut of re-raise new pot to 1870, and I decided to fold with my deep stack, under the gun also push all-in, flop AK7 ,and I was top set with nut flush draw ,but I fold, cut of A8910 ds, under the gun 910JQ , turn 10, river 10, Is it correct to fold with this big stack in this situation? because I thought that its possible that someone also have AAxx, which is not good, and also if I push all-in under the gun will call, and I don't want to gamble with this stack size
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ya. I think you fold is incorrect. I see what you are saying about someone else having AA, but I think you will probably overestimating the likelihood. See http://www.runitonce.com/plo/pre-flop-math-vs-perceived-aaxx-3b-and-c/
CO might be trying to isolate and get you to fold hands like QQxx and KKxx thinking that you don't have AAxx often when you don't 4b.
What was your stack (did you cover everyone, just certain players etc?)?
But yeah, in general this looks like a bad decision. Yes, it sucks a bit when the 5k guy also has AA, but those times he doesn't (which should be reasonably frequent given you don't look super strong, UTG looks weak, and he can isolate with a ton of dead money) you are in great shape and stand to win A LOT of money.
Remember, you also have reasonably decent aces here - the 2 and the Q both give you straight potential and you have a suit - which adds to the value of this spot + protects you a little bit against another AA hand (ie it isn't as much of a disaster as if you have like AA94r).
As part of me practicing ev calculations for various hands, here is calculation what if i shoved :
CASE A - we shove and UTG overcalls, and CO cant fold and goes allin as well
CASE B - we shove UTG folds and CO is allin
CASE A - POT = 10550
CASE B - POT = utg dead money 105+550+4000+4000 POT = 8655
UTG1 - top 10 percent of range of PPT( which includes all AA combos and gives us balanced picture against total of his range)
CO PJ 3 bet 10% IP range ( that gives CO combos of AA’s as well but reflects more reality with playable hands that we often 3 bet)
CASE A
- Shorty (UTG1) has top 10 % PPT / UTG call
Equity 4 way pot 10550
Pot 1 2200 pot 2 4350 pot 3 4000
Equity in pot 1 2200
$FI50
24.6749%
AAQh2h
22.3027%
$3B10I
27.8275%
10 %
25.1949%
Equity in pot 2 4350
$FI50
27.9406%
AAQh2h
41.3531%
$3B10I
30.7063%
Equity in pot 3 4000
$3B10I
39.4633%
AAQh2h
60.5367%
EV =0.22*2200+0.41*4350+0.60*4000-3895=484+1783.5+2400-3895=+772.5
EV =+772.5
CASE B
- Shorty has top 10 % PPT / UTG folds
Equity 3 way
POT 8655 mainpot 1755 side pot 6900
EQUITY IN MAIN POT 1755
$3B10I
31.1105%
AAQh2h
41.4509%
10 %
27.4385%
EQUITY IN SIDEPOT 6900
$3B10I
39.3762%
AAQh2h
60.6238%
EV = 0.41*1755+0.6*6900-3895 =719.55+4140-3895=4859.55-3895=+964.55
EV = +964.55
Conclusion
EV of a fold is 0
Case A EV =+772.5
(when shorty has top 10 percent of range and UTG overcalls )
Case B EV =+964.55
(when shorty has top 10 percent of range and UTG folds )
We should shove
Just depends on how much you like variance. If it's a big game for you, I don't hate folding. It's certainly +EV to jam though, especially since I believe most competent players who 3b from the CO in this situation can have re-iso's pre in their range (maybe he has good KK? or the rundowns that people think play better in 3-way pots etc).
Lots of players eyes bet big when they see all that dead money.. And re-iso to gambooool.. So imo ranges aren't always AA** here. Prob worth running some sims on ppt to see how often you run into AA in this spot.
All the time I knew that I have to push here, but I fold not only because I thought that someone else could have AA** , but cause I know this players: CO and UTG, and know that none of them will fold, and dont want to gamble with this stack size. Anyway my decision was bad :( And new question for me is: Do I have to play big limits when I think more about money than to take right decisions?
It sucks a lot because it's extremely high variance but this is an edge you CANNOT afford to pass up in any game, bar one in which the villains are all extremely easy to manipulate and read. I've never come across a game so easy to manipulate and read that I would pass up this edge. Just done a bunch of sims and its extremely difficult to have this be -EV to jam.
Folding the nuts is a thing you have to do from time to time in PLO but you have to be very confident in your reads. It is often a bigger mistake to pass a big equity edge than it is to call and subject yourself to variance.
As harsh as this may sound, I don't believe your decision was based on reads at all.
I have 3 reasons for you to not play this game.
1) you don't seem to understand EV and the fact that the only person you don't want to show aces is the short stack. If the big stack has Aces that's not a problem.
2) The big stack is bound to ISO here with QQxxs+ or any rundown like KQT8ds+
3) I am 98% certain your decision was solely based on the fact of how much your buy in means to you which seems to dictate your standard stakes should be around 100-200PLO not 1K PLO
I think folding is a pretty huge mistake here. I don't think CO has to have AA, he can be iso'ing here with a lot of his 3bet range, expecting to force folds most of the time. Additionally, the point of flatting AAxx the first time around is to trap, so I'm fist pumping when this scenario plays out.
If you're playing PLO you're gambling whether you like it or not. You may as well take the +EV gambles.
I do not see where this is big variance. Like Aleksandra pointed out, even if her ranges may be slightly off (which I am not saying) your EV is between 500-1000$ in one single hand and you have already money in the Pot. Compared to your Stack its 12,5 - 25% which you will never get in better this deep unless they are really bad.
If you fold this you shouldn't be sitting in the game
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