Flopping nuts on bad board for our range

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Flopping nuts on bad board for our range

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $27.78
SB: $41.81 (Hero)
BB: $27.29
UTG: $25.71
MP: $12.25
CO: $63.28
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with 7 A 8 A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.85, BN folds, Hero raises to $2.80, BB folds, CO calls $1.95
Flop ($5.85) 9 5 6
Hero bets $5.60, CO raises to $15.50, Hero raises to $39.01 and is all in, CO folds
I was shoving and comitting him to call off with his sets, villain snap folded. How would you have played it?
Final Pot SB wins $35.28
Rake is $1.57

12 Comments

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P0tlimitlife 8 years, 4 months ago

never bet to induce? if villain is aware that he should likely be hitting this flop better than us then inducing bluff raises is real good for us. We bet pot and get raised 3x, its the same as x/c, x/c pot flop and turn. Hard to predict these sorts of things though. I mean, hero x/c pot on flop. x/r turn when villain picks GS and NFD, villain stacks off because he is pot commited and we're crushing (4:1 favourite likely). Dream scenario.

If its micros and players are less aggro, leaning towards passive without recognising this is ahead of co range then i lean towards betting.

Villain dependent for me i think.

ICbetU 8 years, 4 months ago

I have a couple ways of playing this flop:
1. If villain is competent and aware of our range, check call, check raise turn. This is just the perfect hand to protect or check calling range with in this spot. If your never checking this hand, what hands are you check calling that can call turn? Maybe rundowns that flopped two pair and a gutter or the nuts but we dont have a lot of them. Villain will also barrel this board a ton with hands with no equity against us.

  1. If villain thinks we are fishy potting this flop with all of our AA and AKK combos to get it in, he overcommits with a lot of hands here without equity, but at the same time, we lose a sick amount of value here. Villain is proabably folding all of his hands that flop less than middle pair, folding all his overpairs and so on. We become super polarized in this spot.

  2. As played, why are you shuving flop? Villain is stating that he is shuving 100% of turns and you got the nutterbutters! Let the fish comitt his stack on turn, let his bluffs continue.

My favorite line here, check call, check raise turn :) or check call turn if its a complete brick like the Ace or a rainbow deuce

Cthulu23 8 years, 4 months ago

Disagree with the above, as played bet gii at these stakes and stack sets but my default is x/c flop. I've even seen fish raise sets otf and checkback turn on blanks. And i think you get a raise from sets quite a bit in this spot. You could argue that bet gii is the best play at these stakes since nobody will triple barrel this deep vs x/c x/c, maybe double barrel but that's the equivalent of a bluffraise so not that much value lost there. You lose a bit since people will be more likely to attack perceived weakness from checking than raising a bet. 100bbs deep c/r is for sure the play, so many spastic fish betting all their 2p over and gutshots etc. Also might get three streets from 743 stuff that peels flop and turns smaller straights on 234

ICbetU 8 years, 4 months ago

How often does villain have a set here? Not very often. Seems bad to be looking for stacking a set on a flop where a 30% RFI -AA combos flops a set 11% of the time.

P0tlimitlife 8 years, 4 months ago

I don't think you can say he doesn't flop a set that often and then leave it at that. We have to put villain on a raising range, this would include all sets and straights as well as some bluffs potentially. Yes you flop a set 11/12% of the time but thats irrelevant, we have to assign a range to the flop raise and that is sets. Preflop, there are so many combos of 99/66/55 even within $FI30%!AA

Cthulu23 8 years, 4 months ago

I don't see how it's possible to balance a reraise on 965, so from a gto point of a view it's clear mistake. Your 88/77 blockers that would 3bet once in a blue moon should be either 7765ds (dead when called), 8876ds but that's the nuts, 8899 but getting that in is just plain stupid since it's the best bluffcatcher, and 889tds (dead when called). Also you've got maybe some double pairs like 88kk also dead when called so risking 160bbs with 0 equity on the easiest board to slowplay on ip is suicidal. I think you can bet this and be balanced with some parts of your range and probably should do so but certainly not for pot. Probably 88kk with a bdoor fdraw would do far better by betting than check-raising since if you bet bet villain is sometimes incentivised to raise at some point and you get away or even if he does try to slowplay you can escape on some runouts whereas if you c/r and bomb turn you're hanging yourself. So all that said, you should probably cbet this since it's the bare nuts and no redraw and villain will either peel some gutters and weak pairs, and fold shit that turns a lot of equity and has great visibility like KQJT, i wouldn't go for pot cbet though, maybe like 40-50% pot and depending on turns i size up or keep it the same, if villain's a fish you bomb obv.

ICbetU 8 years, 4 months ago

^I feel like this should be a check with our entire range, and check call everytime, and call turn as well. With stacksizes in mind its proabably best to checkraise all in turn, but check call if deeper

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