Flopped no-nut GS + NFD ip 150bb deep vs action multiway
Posted by benfiquista
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benfiquista
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Low Stakes
Flopped no-nut GS + NFD ip 150bb deep vs action multiway
PLO100 - 6 players
HJ - 150bb
BU - Hero - 150bb
SB - 150bb
BB - 100bb
Hero As Tc 7s 2c
fold, HJ raises to 3.5bb, fold, Hero calls, SB calls, fold
Flop (3 players, 11.5bb) 3s 8d Js
SB bets 8.5bb, HJ raises to 35bb, Hero ?
HJ some decent tight reg (a little weak, bumhunt and doesn't play a lot vs me)
SB some passive fish, able of tricky moves ip, doesn't gamble
Preflop
Not such a great call preflop.
Double-suited and an A, but quite disconnected and low cards except A
But this A suited, SB and BB being quite bad players playing too much hands.
And HJ decent player, but quite weak postflop, avoid to play vs me and HU ip I think I can't outplay him quite often.
Flop
Good flop, with no-nut GS + NFD, ip vs 2 players.
But now both are giving action on this dynamic flop.
SB, oop almost never dkbet, especially vs 2 players. Strong range here
and HJ, tight reg and 150bb deep (and with me to be playing after him) has a very strong range here, moreover vs SB who he knows that he is passive.
Back to me.
I think my no-nut GS is too often dead here (wraps 9Txx are often here).
The NFD is good ip multiway here.
The problem is that both of Villains are showing strong ranges here.
If I call, I believe that very often it will turn in a reraise from SB etc... and 3way allin (maybe HJ would fold a middle/bottom set here if SB reraises)
We're playing 150bb and I only put 3.5bb in this pot.
Not happy to put 147bb here.
Dream scenario would be allin 3way and playing vs two sets (I'm ~37% equity)
But on this board, I think if it goes all in, it will be vs set and a big combodraw (9TQx-like + FD, DP + FD + GS), dominating my GS and cutting two flushy outs (I'm ~25% equity)
Fold seems me weak. But I don't know.
Calling ip and praying for a call from a SB no-gambling with a combo-draw ? And push and pray if action goes allin flop ?
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Preflop, I don't mind calling and I usually call too, but this can be a fold. Maybe even should be a fold; I'm very uncertain about if I'm too loose with suited ace combos.
The flop is interesting, because all of the math (as I'm running it) is very close and dependent on how wide villains are and how SB reacts.
To my mind, folding the flop would rarely be a big mistake, and—if I'm not mistaken—HJ's raise is pricing you out unless you figure in implied odds.
If you assume SB will call, I believe calling becomes a slightly +EV play.
I also looked into the merits of raising. If you pot and fold out SB, we're looking at about 43-44% equity heads-up, as far as I can tell. My math shows us giving ourselves the wrong price for if SB folds UNLESS we have even a little bit of fold equity vs HJ. I wouldn't count on us being able to fold out both players, but I think it shows how close and interesting this situation is. (If SB didn't fold and then they or HJ re-raised all-in, it'd be a mistake to fold at that point, obv.)
So I don't think there's a 100% slam dunk bulletproof answer. It depends heavily on how you interpret the details of the situation.
I think I like a call best, but folding—especially if you're averse to putting 150bbs at risk (which, if you are, you honestly may be playing too high for your bankroll/psychological comfort)—doesn't seem horrible to me. Raising can be argued for, but it requires the most questionable assumptions, I think.
i play with ~1000 buyin of my stakes, so i'm not that we can call "scared money" lol
Call ip can makes sense in some situations with gamblers, or in an other way if i can expect a call from SB.
But here my two opponents would play quite tight in this situation
SB some passive fish (preflop play some 65/12/3, entering games with 50bb generally), and he's almost never dking in this situation (deep, oop vs 2 players)
and HJ tight reg (24/18/5) being even more tight postflop.
I suspect both to be ultrastrong here, and my call being raised and gii by the two players, and i would be commit
just put 3.5bb here. If i gii, I think i make fold one opponent maximum (if the two calls it would be better with my NFD ofc)
And I'm putting ~147bb for a ~325bb pot (between 340bb if SB gii and HJ folds, and 310bb if SB fold and HJ gii).
So needing ~45% equity HU, which I wouldn't have here (playing mostly vs sets, and some DP+draw. And one of the player would have probably fold a hand cutting me some outs)
If it gii 3way, need 147/451 = ~32% equity. Which would be ok vs two sets but not enough vs set vs combo draw
fold pre
fold flop
plolearnerguy, on the other hand, thinks there's a 100% slam dunk bulletproof answer that requires no elaboration.
Analyze here is good.
Only problem is that this hand looks good. If you forget how the hand looks like and just think about these equities, it will be easier to find the fold.
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