Flop x/r NFD+GS, Turn b/c or?
Posted by CustomSuited
Posted by
CustomSuited
posted in
Low Stakes
Flop x/r NFD+GS, Turn b/c or?
BN: $24
SB: $13.72
BB: $25 (Hero)
UTG: $20.70
HJ: $25
CO: $49.61
SB: $13.72
BB: $25 (Hero)
UTG: $20.70
HJ: $25
CO: $49.61
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
A
2
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50
This is a continuation of my PLO25 saga. So BTN is a TAG reg stealing about 45% on the button and is a 4tabling zoom reg. He cbets about 73% over a large sample size so he should be pretty merged here with value/semibluffs. His 2nd barrel is at 77%. He has folded to x/r on the flop about one-third of the time over 15 x/r spots. As far as history, he has run super hot and won every single big pot we've played.
Anyways, we make the defend here and I choose to x/r the flop as we have fold equity and we have quite a few good turn cards we can barrel on. He calls which I think will be with a range of mostly overpair+fd, T7xx, combo draws. I think he would mostly 3bet any sets or T7xx+high fd so I remove almost all strong made hands from his range. The turn is a question mark for me. Assuming he jams over our bet with 45xx and 98xx, what should we do here?
Anyways, we make the defend here and I choose to x/r the flop as we have fold equity and we have quite a few good turn cards we can barrel on. He calls which I think will be with a range of mostly overpair+fd, T7xx, combo draws. I think he would mostly 3bet any sets or T7xx+high fd so I remove almost all strong made hands from his range. The turn is a question mark for me. Assuming he jams over our bet with 45xx and 98xx, what should we do here?
Flop
($1.60)
7
3
T
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $1,
Hero raises to $3.20,
BN calls $2.20
Turn
($8.00)
7
3
T
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets $7.66,
BN raises to $20.05, and is all in,
Hero calls $12.39
River
($48.10)
7
3
T
6
5
(2 Players)
Final Pot
Hero has
9
A
2
J
BN has
7
K
9
8
BN
wins $46.10
Loading 7 Comments...
if you put him on mostly 98xx/456x (which I agree with), our eq on the turn is about 23%. I'd probably check-call a small bet, check-fold to a pot bet, bet-call only if I had the club flush draw as well (make the Js the Jc, your eq jumps to 42%)
since he calls your raise and you've got the nutflush covered, that 6 makes a lot of straights for him so yeah c/f pot bet c/c no larger than 4 bet. If turn was offsuit 6 I'd betfold small and bluff balnks.
Yeah thanks for the comments guys, I don't like my play because so much of his range is draws that complete on that turn. Given that, I like a x/c vs small bet and x/f vs pot. The times we get him to fold an overpair+fd or some weak made hand+draw is not enough to outweigh the times that we get destroyed by a straight.
Raise it bigger on the flop, this board is so dynamic that we are propably not gonna have any real c/r bluffing range here, so I might even want to pot it here. If you don't wanna pot it I would still go at least 4x or somewhere close to it. By raising bigger you pretty much don't have the problem from this hand on the turn because the SPR is "much" lower and you need less equity to profitably pot/call.
Thanks for the thoughts Edge. I actually like this idea quite a bit. Actually yeah at these stakes a bluff-raise range is probably unnecessary on this board.
It's not about the stakes, it's just that we c/r hands that are going with it on the flop AND on most turns anyway, and eventhough some of those hands are combodraws such as yours, this range is still very very strong equitywise; and since we want to get as much value as we can from his draws when we have the madehand part of our c/r range and want as much foldequity as we can get with the draw-part of our range, I don't see why we shouldn't be going big in this spot.
You obviously still can mix in some hands that can't c/c but want to see turns like KQJ9 with high spade or some nutflush blockers with added equity that has the same problem on the flop, but I think the frequencies we show up with those are gonna be so low compared to the combos of our strong valuerange that it's not that big of a problem anyway.
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