Flop vs Nit 240bb deep with all the blockers

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Flop vs Nit 240bb deep with all the blockers

BN: $6.33
SB: $24.28
BB: $24.08 (Hero)
UTG: $26.17
HJ: $10
CO: $5.23
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A J K 8
UTG raises to $0.35, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25
Flop ($0.75) 6 K A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.70, UTG raises to $5.10

Villain plays 14/10 over 163 hands with a Aggfactor of 21.

The hand looks pretty nice. Toptwo with NutFD. But what do we do after we get 3bet on Flop? Although I block two sets and I assume that he wouldn't 3bet with 66xx(doubt there are many hands in his UTGrange containing 66) I dont really want to stackoff this deep. Is it right to assume that he probably would also flat AQJT type of hands instead of raising them again? Is my raise on the flop a mistake considering that I block a lot of hands that would call and villain being fairly nitty?

24 Comments

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plac730 11 years, 3 months ago

yeah against someone this tight (and he's probably even tighter when UTG if he's positionally aware) its best to just x/c flop, x/c any turn, and x/fold to a big river bet unimproved.

it might feel weak/exploitable to be forced to play a hand this strong this passively but rest assured he's losing value in other spots being so tight preflop. putting in too much $ against these guys when their range is so strong is just playing into what they are trying to accomplish with their strategy.


Imfish4u 11 years, 3 months ago

Against a normal player i would def raise on the flop but against real nits i also think its best to just x/c or maybe lead and call his raise. Even though your hand is  very strong, you will never be able to get it in good in this spot against someone you his very tight post flop.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

Can be as nitty as possible, top 2 with nutfldraw, ship it :S, your hand strength is huge to give it up to anyone, can be TOPNITEVERCONFIRMED, you got top 2 plus nutfldr on rather dry board ( no wrap str8s possible except JTQ combo for outs crippled cause u hold flush draw )

PLOpleyah 11 years, 3 months ago

insta-ship, for all the reasons  said before. When you are in these spots, you're probably freerolling him, you can't be afraid on this flop, or you have no business playing PLO. I think your this hand is more one exercise about how extract the maxximum.

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 3 months ago

I have to disagree with the people who think this is a spot where all we need to think about is how to get stacks in. 30x pot on this board against a nit opening UTG will often be a big mistake. Even against a really wide bet/getting it in range for him of sets, top twos, and gutter + flush draws you are barely a flip (depends exactly what preflop range we give him).

The purpose of shoving this is to get it in versus a weaker AK hand (so like AKQT + bdfd) or against a combo draw (QJT + hearts) 'cas you crush those, but there aren't nearly enough of them. In reality, you are probably going to be getting it in against a much tighter range.  If you give him a range of (AA, KK, 66, AK:hh, QJT:hh):10%6h you're like 38.5% to win.

So yeah, just blindly going broke here seems pretty terrible to me at this SPR. Equally, the idea of raise/folding a hand like this makes me vomit. Depending on the nit's c-bet frequency, I think you could argue for a check/call with the intention of basically never folding or bet/calling flop. Check/raising against this narrow a range isn't a play I'm a fan of at all 'cas either you have to fold a monster (gross) or call flop and have a ton of FML spots OTT.


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

Tom, If he is a nit as stated, i think we can safely exclude 66 in possible hands that he wil rereraise on the flop, and if you exclude only that 1 hand, your equity goes up to 45.6 percent even against as tight as AA KK possible * ( AA**, KK**, AK:hh,QJT:hh ) , but if we add 66 as possible i think we can then add A6** also  that would make equity up to 70 percent


Tom Coldwell 11 years, 3 months ago
This logic doesn't work. There's no way that giving him 66 means we have to give him A6 AT ALL. Also, removing 66 actually hurts our equity slightly (by like 0.4% or something) if you factor in a tight preflop range. So yeah, this isn't correct.


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

Ye3 iknow was just example how equity drastically goes up and down depending range we assign him

A6 is superunlikely, but I'm thinking no nit would ever rereraise 66. 3rd set is simply not in super nit rereraise hand deep

But 66 is another hand we have low equity against ( 30,.. removing it in PPT ~ i just edited range u assigned him ~ and excluded 66, made equity go up from 38 to 45,6

antar 11 years, 3 months ago

I agree that vilain should extremely rarely play his rare 66xx that way.

As deep I don't expect this line from very many QJThh hands. Maybe sometimes vilain will show up with something like AxQxJhTh o AxKxQhTh but realistically I think we are very often up against AAXX or AKKX.



Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

HMM i wanted to exclude overlapping which is significant AKK* not to be counted both in AK as combo in kk as combo and also in AA as combo !

i kinda rethinking it now, should write it slightly better

Help?

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 3 months ago
When you wanna exclude hands as you go, try excluding already accounted for selections. So something like: AA. Then KK!AA. Then AK!(AA, KK). etc.


antar 11 years, 3 months ago

Aleksandra, there is just no way he's gonna play like this with any AQJT//AKXX hand. 

I can't think of one opponent i'd want to get 240bb in with say AKQQr or AcQcTsJs when the pot on the flop is 7bb.


Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 3 months ago

HMMM

i don't like result i got but here it is, card count after rereraise if we assume opponent has AA**, KK**, AK with hearts or AQJT with hearts

AA**:10%6h                           903  combos

KK**!AA:10%6h                  838

(AK**:hh!AA!KK):10%6h     39

AQJT:hh:10%6h                    18

QJT9:hh!AQJT:10%6h          15






I won't even bother to do ev, is obv we re roasted chicken against such range after rereraise, so my argument to shove get it in ~ is out of place


Tho

if villain would rereraise with AK combos * for protection against hearts and with logic that he is holding 2 blockers to top sets, plus his position grants him having AA KK more then it does to us ( since we didn't 3 bet )_ he may safely assume we don't have AA KK, so he maybe willing to put pressure with his range on our most likely hearts

if we add 

AK**!AA!KK:10%6h 733 combos

we may consider calling flop to reevaluate on turn?!



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