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Flop top set IP 3bet pot, villain leads on straightening river

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Flop top set IP 3bet pot, villain leads on straightening river


poker - $10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG (UTG): 173.65 BB (VPIP: 53.97, PFR: 44.44, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 66)
Hero (CO): 189.43 BB
BTN (BTN): 132.8 BB (VPIP: 26.55, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 1,213)
SB (SB): 123.63 BB (VPIP: 25.73, PFR: 18.02, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 4,790)
BB (BB): 130.61 BB (VPIP: 30.38, PFR: 23.36, 3Bet Preflop: 13.12, Hands: 668)

Villain 3bets about 12% out of the BB vs the CO, so far I've mostly seen him 3bet high card hands and rundowns, although I'm sure aces and strong kings are in his range. 

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Dealt to Hero:
Qd6hKdQh

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 9.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB

seems like a standard call with a suit and the K.  without the K or without a suit I would consider folding especially at only 130bbs deep.


Flop (19.5 BB, 2 players):
Qs9h5h
BB checks, Hero bets 12 BB, BB calls 12 BB

Villain cbets 70% in 3bet pots, and seems to cbet more OOP than IP.  He's actually folded to most cbets or flop floats OOP (basically vs missed cbet) but the sample is really small and includes non-3bet pots.  This is fairly close to my standard flop stab sizing, but a little larger since the board is wet.  My assumption is that he would bet an over pair with a flush draw, and x/r most of his strong combo draws despite having a really low check raise number so far.  But I can see him x/c'ing some wraps and OESDs with a pair, or some AA with bds.


Turn (43.5 BB, 2 players):

7c
BB checks, Hero bets 30 BB, BB calls 30 BB

Even though this turn completes 86, I think I'm still way ahead of his range and am obviously betting to stack the turn.  I want to bet a size that is consistent with my bluffs and we have a little too much behind to just go ahead and pot.  everything seems standard so far.



River (103.5 BB, 2 players):
Tc
BB bets 79.11 BB and is all-in, Hero time-banks contemplates all options gets confused wishes he had some blockers and ... folds

villain didn't waste much time, and then shoved the rest into my on the river.  This is obviously a pretty bad card as KJ and J8 get there, but JT doesn't and you would think he would play blockers this way as well since he can't x/r the river.  I don't think he's going to shove TT for value as I can easily have a straight. Also I doubt he expects me to shove a set on this river, so my range for betting the river is pretty much going to be straights and air.  So if he doesn't think I have enough bluffs in this spot he may be looking to get me to call a worse straight or a set.

The biggest reason I folded is because I don't know that he floats twice OOP with just JJTx.  I would think to float twice he would need a wrap something like KJT or JT8.  And all of the wraps got there.  Of course this is pretty high up in my range, so folding seems bad.  lastly villain x/f'd once facing a bet on the river in a 3bet pot.


BB wins 182.31 BB

did I screw up by folding this river?  I feel really exploitable folding here, but (as I've noted lately on the forums) I'm going through a stretch where every time I make this call I lose.



10 Comments

Loading 10 Comments...

arukidinme 10 years, 7 months ago

I can't review the hand in Pokerjuice unless you provide the raw hh text.  In the future you the HH function and its easier to read ad people can grab the HH and examine it. 

A lot of the river here comedown to the range of hands that I have seen him miss cbet with in the past.  He does have a reasonable 3b range so it does contain a lot of rundown hands, but a lot of the KJ portion of hands I think he would cbet with on the flop since alot of them will be 2p+GS, 1p+wrap.  Really hard for him to have KJ that 3bs and does not cbet here.  I would assume that KQJT, AKJx(but x is likely a pair being it probably 8-Q unless he is ds than maybe its a dangler) KKJ, AAKJ, KJTx, KJJx are all going to be bet/calls given how disguised his hand is.  (if he checks, a lot of these will be x/r also on the flop or turn)

So we are left with some pretty weak KJxx hands pf that probably do not make up much of his 3b range.  Lastly we do have a K blocker so that helps block some of those hands.  All in all I think that it's going to be a call here on the river, unless I have a read that he x/c a large portion of the range above that I mentioned, but his preflop stats seem aggressive so I assume that the aggression will carry over to other parts of his game.

themightyjim 10 years, 7 months ago

***** Hand History for Game 1XXXXXXXX5 *****
$1,000 USD PL Omaha - Friday, August 15, 16:44:03 EDT 2014
Table Chicago (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5/6
Seat 3: (BTN) ( $1,328 USD )
Seat 2: Hero ( $1,894.25 USD )
Seat 5: (BB) ( $1,306.13 USD )
Seat 4: (SB) ( $1,236.25 USD )
Seat 1: (UTG) ( $1,736.50 USD )
(SB) posts small blind [$5 USD].
(BB) posts big blind [$10 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  Qd 6h Kd Qc ]
(UTG) folds
Hero raises [$30 USD]
(BTN) folds
(SB) folds
(BB) raises [$85 USD]
Hero calls [$65 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qs, 9h, 5h ]
(BB) checks
Hero bets [$120 USD]
(BB) calls [$120 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7c ]
(BB) checks
Hero bets [$300 USD]
(BB) calls [$300 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
(BB) is all-In  [$791.13 USD]
Your time bank will be activated in 6 secs. If you do not want it to be used, please act now.
Hero will be using his time bank for this hand.
Hero folds
(BB) does not show cards.
(BB) wins $1,823.13 USD

Nikopolidis 10 years, 7 months ago

I think I fold here, because river should be hitting your range quite a bit too. I don´t think this is a good bluffing card for him at all, and with no history I think it is a clear fold against regs for sure. 

Not too worried about being exploited to be honest either, because te only reasonable hand to do this with as a bluff is JJTx which he will have a quite tiny amount of the time when 3betting OOP.


PokerJuice 10 years, 7 months ago

Intuitively I agree with Nikopolidis that fold is correct here since Villain would have so many bluff catchers that he would not turn into a bluff here, limiting his bluffing range considerably.  

I just ran a quick PokerJuice analysis: http://hh.pokerjuice.com/hh/3FChVqhd44

P: $3b12o
F: Continue range: Q+,hh,JT+,9+:T8+ Bet+XR range: 55+,Q+:Ahh,JT+:hh
T: Continue range: Q5+,JT8,Q+:KJ:hh,KK+:J:hh,KK+:JT+ Bet+XR range: 86+,Q7+:hh
R: VB range: J8+ X-range: Q9+ Blockers: K,J

With this input I get that Villains VB range is 64% of his river range. Stack Sizes etc. taken into account he then has license to bluff 28% of his river-range. Even if he bets his entire air-range of 22% (20% if only with blockers) it would not be enough to justify a call.

/Nikolaj



Ph33roX 10 years, 7 months ago

It's a very tilting spot but I think we should fold.  You should not be worried about being exploited here for a couple of reasons:

1. You are not actually at the top of your range. There are 3 straights possible and you can easily have all of then. The diamonds in your hands also mean there are less bricked FD's in villain's range, reducing the value of the bluffcatcher. If we started calling some sets, this would not be my first pick (But with the K blocker, not my last either).

2. Even if you fold to a shove enough that he can jam his air, it still doesn't mean you get butchered here because a lot of his range still prefers to play as a check in theory and in practice. That mostly means that a lot of his range has showdown value on the river. If you are tanking here with a set, it's easy to see why a bluff with 2p is thin. 

Having said that, even if this is an exploitable fold, I prefer to be under-calling in this spot because people's range are pretty unbalanced and value-heavy here.


Python499 10 years, 7 months ago

Wtf? What kind of line is this? Do you have stats on him xc in 3bet pots oop when not pre flop aggressor? Isn't it super standard for all of his wraps to cbet otf? Problem is that the T hits your range so well...

John Beauprez 10 years, 7 months ago

Folding seems pretty standard. Whenever I'm faced with tough river spots, I always find the most important question is:

What does it look like I have?

Here we have taken a line that represents strength. Villains mostly won't bluff us here. I'd sigh and fold. 

OnceItRun 10 years, 7 months ago

He has a lot more straight-containing combos here, given that a hand with a flush draw would've played it more aggressively...also KK** is probably the only hand I can think of that gets there and bluffs this way (since most JJ** will have connected with this river) and you block some of these combos with your K, so there way too little bluffing hands that he may have on the river. Also, as Ph33rox mentioned, you are not at the top of your range, so worrying about being exploited is out of the equation too. Seems like an easy fold (with a sigh).


themightyjim 10 years, 5 months ago

it's funny seeing this post from a couple of months ago.  This type of hand is just so standard for me in 2014.  I flop the nuts and bet and get called.  the turn is a little worse and I bet and get called.  the river is the worst card in the deck and I get jammed into or am OOP and just hate my life. 

the worst thing about it is I'm pretty sure I've developed some bad bluffing habits since I feel like everyone else is getting there on the river against me so I should be able to rep these hands in these river spots too.  But when I try to bluff the river in these spots I think I'm over bluffing and my opponents are calling exploitably light (whether or not they understand why it's correct).

despite the fact that I'm having a better year than last year financially it's been an infinitely more frustrating 10.5 months so far.

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