Finding bottom valuerange on the river
Posted by EdgeKing
Posted by
EdgeKing
posted in
Low Stakes
Finding bottom valuerange on the river
SB: $44.87
BB: $202.54 (Hero)
UTG: $13.37
MP: $203.90
CO: $48.63
Hey fellas,
this spot came across my last session, where I'm not quite sure what's the worst hand we are valuebetting here.
I don't have a turn leadingrange here since it's a pretty bad card for my range, and we are playing against a villain who is not barreling many turns either (which was the reason for the flopcall in the first place). I defend around 80% against a potopen from BU, so we will end up with a fair amount of busted FDs that have just one or no pair, as well and some 876 and some bare Tx, so if we want to be bluffing this spot a fair amount we also want to be valuebetting pretty lose.
I believe that our hand is not the best candidate due to the lack of blockers for the high straight as well as having no diamond in our hand makes it a pretty good c/f (or c/c against some oponnents with certain tendencies), but I wonder if we can start valuebetting all KQT/AQT+ in this spot, as I don't think villain will be able to punish us often enough since we will have a fair amount of 98+ ourselves, yet will be overfolding rivers a lot against our range if we bet most of our bluffs here (especially those with a 9 in them) if he starts folding 2pairs (at least that's what my guess is).
So yeah, will be glad to hear what you guys think about this spot.
P.S.: I do realize this is a PLO50 hand, doesn't make it less worth to be thinking about our range in a balanced perspective.
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I'm unsure about where your bottom value betting shold be. But if he starts folding 2pair then doesn't that make your bets with 2 pair bluffs and not value? He is now folding worse and calling better?
My point is, if we don't valuebet 2 pairs, then 72 is as great of a bluffcatcher as QJ as there are no hands inbetween that we are valuebetting. So once he starts folding 2pairs (especially Queens up) our bluffs start winning a lot of EV as he will be overfolding the river a lot to our bet. Obviously if we know that he is folding all 2pairs we can start just valuebetting straights+ or QQ+ and be overbluffing a lot since his calling frequency will be way to small.
Also our 2pairs can't end up actually being bluffs as we can't make any better hand fold (unless he folds a bottom set once in a blue moon)
That is again if my assumption that QT or QJ+ is actually the worst hand we can valuebet being in Nash, which might be utterly wrong, especially if we take a look at our checkingrange.
Whats up EdgeKing?
The worst hands we can be value betting in this spot are Q10, QJ and Q7. It depends on his calling and folding frequencies. If he likes loose calls then he could be calling with any two pair. The hands above are the hands I'd value bet. He might even call with over pairs that hand flush draws if he really thinks we will be bluffing a lot here.
This is just a bad spot to bluff. I don't think we can find too many bluffs OOP on this river because he will be calling down so light. When we have position, this hand is a lot easier and I'd value bet the hands above and call down with most two pair depending on villain. I think two pairs with queens up are calling in this spot because of the turn action.
-Lifted Mindset
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