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facingTurn Donk pot-size

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

facingTurn Donk pot-size

SB: $55.05
BB: $33.72
CO: $25.25
BN: $25 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.35) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt T A J 2
CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.40, SB folds, BB folds, CO calls $1.65
Flop ($5.15) 4 7 9 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.80, CO calls $3.80
Turn ($12.75) 4 7 9 K (2 Players)
CO bets $12.18, Hero raises to $18.80, and is all in, CO calls $6.62
CO is 21\14 over 60 hands

one thing for sure - he is never bluffing here, and i dont expect to see semi-bluffs too often. his range could be like, KK, K7, k9, mb 8TKcc


i dont think i can fold here. but is it technically more correct just to call or to shove?
and what is your regural sizing OTF? seems liek his c/c range doesnt change a lot whether it would be 3 or 4.30, or i'm wrong here?

3 Comments

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pewe217 12 years ago
i don't see any reason to shove this hand since you have no FE (because of the psb); you are spewing money on that spot, just call and keep that 6 bucks if doesn't hit.

also i'm not a fan with the 3bet because of villians stats, even if it's a small sample. Therefore his range is pretty much K9+ imo

and the 75% sizing otf is good, it wouldn't change much i think
Tom Coldwell 12 years ago
The only reason not to flat this bet is because watching your redline go down makes you sadder than maxing EV makes you happy. In reality, you know you don't have the best hand, you know which cards you need to hit and you know he probably can't fold any of them for the price he'll be getting. Therefore, you call and put the rest in when you hit. Now and again you'll hit the Kc and still lose, but even then, you'll do fine overall (I've assumed 29 river folds, 14 river calls you win and a river call you lose. This comes out as a comfortable profit).

The only justification for a shove here would be if you think he has a significant number of hands which are drawing versus us. In reality, his line makes it very unlikely (imo) that he has those so calling to call/shove good rivers would be best imo.

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