Facing pot Bet and turn shove w AQQK on J10hh3x
Posted by jaesik
Posted by
jaesik
posted in
Mid Stakes
Facing pot Bet and turn shove w AQQK on J10hh3x
SB: $123
BB: $110.20 (Hero)
UTG: $101.70
HJ: $142.27
CO: $317.30
BN: $413.15
BB: $110.20 (Hero)
UTG: $101.70
HJ: $142.27
CO: $317.30
BN: $413.15
Villain is 23/19 w 19SBPFR over 344 Hands
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
Q
K
A
UTG raises to $2, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $7, Hero calls $6, UTG calls $5
UTG raises to $2, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $7, Hero calls $6, UTG calls $5
Flop
($21.50)
T
J
3
(3 Players)
SB bets $21,
Hero calls $21,
UTG folds
Turn
($63.50)
8
(2 Players)
SB bets $63
Hero??
Loading 7 Comments...
You can argue for folding preflop.
As played I would probably ship it on the flop because calling gets you in ugly turn spots most of the time.
What does his pot bet mean? For some players it is either NFD w AA(usually) others only have strong vulnerable made hands like top2 or set.
His 3b in the SB? His 3b vs utg? Or utg vs sb if u have that stat.
I prefer having a good pre and post flop read b4 i call a 3b w Axxx. Were gonna have the worst relative position when we overcall here.
Vs a range of only NFD and top2 within the top 10% of hands you have 40% which is prob worst case scenario, so a jam is fine otf and prob best if u dont have a read what the pot bet means bc of poor visibility and possibly not a lot of implied odds and maybe some reversed impl.
Yeah, pre is close.
Flop is a jam.
This is monster hand and "only" if I was in SB and I 3-bet and got 4-bet from BB - I fold.
If i limp as SB and got reraised from BB, I think I would call.
When SB 3-bets pre - I deffinitely call from BB - almost always.
Now, what kind of player is my opponent? Tricky or straightforward one?
We have:
Vs AA - I am lost on this very flop that I hit pretty hard (!): 38,5:61:5%
Vs AAhh - its even worse: 26:74%
Vs AJJ!hh - its not good neither: 36,5:63,5%
Vs QhJh98 - its not "so" bad: 46,5:53,5%
Vs KKJT - its: 38:62%
Vs JhT9h8, its not good: 34,5:63,5%
For these 6 hands of our opponent our average is 37%, if he is betting somewhat more light OTF ( + we need to have in mind his 3-bet from SB pre) maybe we could have average ~max43% (adding QJ98 non suited in hearts in his range, JT87!hh, T987hh and maybe KJh98h).
And we need ~45,4% to stack off OTF (effective stacks) under legit assumption UTG's range is weak.
No matter how strong we look OTF to ourselves, I still think we could fold it and save our money....
Correct me if I am wrong pls. Thanks.
Also, his range contains high cards and high pairs which are our outs for our wrap, and if he additionally has 2 hearts - we are not in good shape...
I think flop should be a shove or fold dependent on how wide villan pots the flop here - sb should be really strong here leading into 3 people on a flop thats extremely wet, and vs the top of his range we're not doing so hot.....I guess a default jam is probably the way to go if we're readless but folding readless has to be pretty close.
I like the last two posts here.
- SB 3bet a minraise from UTG. While a minraise is weaker than a bigger raise on average SB knows that SPR will be still pretty high after his 3bet is called so I think that strenghtens (=tightens) his 3betting range. He also doesn't have as much power to force out BB since his 3bet is small.
- OTF: SB pots into two people. While we have a good chunk of EQ vs any hand we pretty much never (or very seldomly) are in good shape. It sucks to fold a good EQ but isn't it worse to gii bad here almost always.
Lofigr said we need 45% to stack off on the flop here and here is no way we have that. If SB 3bets around 7% here and plays that way with top2, pair+oesd, wraps, AA+something we have like 37%.
Calling doesn't work out as well imo since we don't have direct odds and have to fold OTT if we don't hit.
So, as a conclusion, if we don't have spefic reads on SBs betsizing here I feel like this has to be a fold OTF.
+1 on folding . I'd give him much more AAK/AAQ, AKK hands though (oftentimes w/FD), all of them hurt our EQ - and in addition UTG can have a strong hand as well.
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