Equities 3-way against AA** and another hand
Posted by hinuttaja
Posted by hinuttaja posted in Mid Stakes
Equities 3-way against AA** and another hand
In a RIO video I watched recently, Phil Galfond said he'd like to see some math on equities 3-way against AA** and another hand. As this situation occurs fairly often, and represents an interesting, albeit VERY risky opportunity to make money, I decided to do the math. I ran equity simulations on either a random hand, JJ77,TT76 or T987ds against AA and another hand.
Unless stated otherwise, the suits are randomly generated.
Situation 1:
We are up against two AA** hands. This is our dream scenario: we are making money almost regardless of our hand!
AA: both 32,4%
any4: 35,2%
AA: both 31,5%
JJ77 or TT76: 37%
AA: both 28.33%
T987ds: 43,33%
The only hands we DON'T want here is a pair with uncoordinated side cards.
KK* has only 31,4%, QQ* has 32%,but QQJT has 35,7%
Situation 2:
We are up against AA* and KK*. This situation is certainly much trickier; however, some money can still be made.
AA 47,6%
KK 25,3%
any4 27,1%
AA* 45,6%
KK* 24,7%
TT76 29,7%
AA* 40,6%
KK* 22,5%
T987ds 36,9%
So the only EV-winning hand here is the premium rundown.
Situation 3:
We are up against AA** and a double-suited hand:
This is the worst scenario. Only AA** makes money here - the other two hands are losers no matter what.
AA** 44,5%
QsTs8c5c 28%
JJ77 27%
AA** 47,7%
QsTs8c5c 30,5%
TT76 21,8%
AA** 51,8%
QT85ds 25,4%
T987ds 22,9%
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