Enough bluffs to call the river?
Posted by Imfish4u
Posted by
Imfish4u
posted in
Mid Stakes
Enough bluffs to call the river?
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players)
BN: $135.03
SB: $546.88
BB: $259.67
UTG: $300.75
MP: $130.69
CO: $202.37 (Hero)
SB: $546.88
BB: $259.67
UTG: $300.75
MP: $130.69
CO: $202.37 (Hero)
No reads on villian. Game is zoom on stars
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
4
5
A
K
, , ,
Flop
($15.00)
3
4
4
, ,
Turn
($33.00)
3
4
4
Q
, , ,
up to here very standard, but now it gets interesting. I think his only value hand is QQ or Q4 which is very unlikely since we are blocking a 4 and he didnt raise the flop.
River
($143.28)
3
4
4
Q
T
,
really not sure what to do here... I feel like if we are folding this hand we are basically never calling here. We are not blocking any FD OTT so I think this should be a good hand to call? Thanks for any advice!
Final Pot
BB
wins and shows a full house, Queens full of Fours.
CO lost and shows three of a kind, Fours.
BB wins $402.99
Rake is $2.75
CO lost and shows three of a kind, Fours.
BB wins $402.99
Rake is $2.75
Loading 10 Comments...
first, I don't play 1\2, so I don't have even decent understanding about pool\regs tendecies.
I put some ranges in PJ, so I'll share then below:
pre for BB $FI50!$3b8o
OTF:
raising sub-range: 43,Ahh:25+,4:hh!RR
calling sub-range: 4,56+,256+,JJ+:(25+,hh),QQ+,Jhh+
(some value combos, draws\floats) I would guess both these sub-ranges should be wider.
folding: *
Turn: so before Qd hits OTT we have 69% of equity.
as you suggested, value raising range: Q4+ (#A)
semi-bluffs: (56+:hh):dd,Q:(57+):(hh,dd),25+:hh:((dd):(Kh+,Kd+)) (#B)
BB folds the rest on the turn.
So far, my ranges likely need some fix, as current turn results look like these:
Please let me know what you think we might change here in terms of ranges (esp. OTF), and we can look at the river results then.
I also have PJ but i didnt have time yet to do some analysis, but hopefully i will have tomorrow. Thanks for the analysis so far. I didnt think that he would have value range 11% of the time. Thats more than i thought. I thought that he would have a lot more semibluffs than here but this range very much depends on what his bluffs with. I will look at it tomorrow and hopefully we can make some river analysis.
I did some analysis today and giving ppl accurate range in the hard part in PJ. I think i good starting point would be OTF something like TT+,flush draws and OE to keep his range wide.
OTT i dont think that he would raise with a Q because he has a lot of showdown value and he will most likely have a a FD or OE with it. His semi bluffs are as u stated 56+:hh, 256+ and hh:dd and the rare Q3.
I think he gets to the river with so much air if we give him this range that we have a pretty clear call and we only need to be good 1 out of 3 times.
QQ is still easily in his BB calling range. Theres no need to 3-bet his mediocre QQxx hands.
not sure that I uderstand you. we didn't exclude QQxx from his pre 3b range.
Sry I misread his thoughts.
I dont see him playing his flush draws this way. His turn raise is almost just a click back, looks more like a value raise to me. My guess is that you are beat here and he probably has 33, 34, Q4 or QQ here, maybe some occasional 4x but as we dont block any possible sidecards on the board so its very likely that he has full on the river.
well, imo clickback w\ draws has more sense (as he sets SPR for river shove and puts ton of presure on our Q+) than x/min with 43\33. Not saying though that it's the only way to think about it.
In all honesty its also possible that he picked up second flush draw with the hand like A257ds or something like that and decided to follow through with his bluff on the river.
Its very close spot imo. It certainly is a pretty good candidate for a call down since both flush draws missed and we have pretty good hand but Im not surprised at all if he has 33,34 or even turned QQ, Q4 here. Im curious now.
I updated the hand now you can see the result. :-)
After doing some analysis I think that we should call river here. He has a lot of semi bluffs OTT and is must likely going to follow thru with some of them because he has no showdown value! We are pretty much on the top of our range here and we basically never have a better hand than A4.
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