I think your points are valid, however I think you should be raise folding, and your life is pretty sigh if he decides to call. I think personally I would always raise this spot to try to end the hand on the flop, and give up on any turn that doesnt improve me if villain decides to call. New to this game so please go easy on me (:

I can go either way otf. Id prefer raising if we could just ship flop or raise smallish like u did and pot gii on good turns. This deep it gets tricky if we raise if our opp is not str8 forward. If villain is capable of rr bluffing flop or floating this w 1 pair and then c-jamming turned draws i prefer calling.

If you raised planning on raise folding to a commiting 3bet, then I like it. The flop is so dry that villain isn't going to just bomb some crap kxxx hand over the top, and even those hands have decent equity.  But raising is good since we have serious reverse implied odds on turns and rivers, and villains perception of you will create more fold equity than you might have against a random villains.

If you had a different image to villain, or a read that he will frequently rebluff flops I think we have to be careful about raise folding.

Sorry guys but I can't agree with most of your comments... Of course I can be wrong on the way I approach this hand/game but let's give it a try...

STED.. why are we defending so wide? Any ds hand is profitable (Q-high/8-high not connected almost at all) especially vs a "good aggro reg with 15% 3b range"?? I can't see that...

•  On the flop you said    "I have 56%....".

-Ok..but we have 2P in a dry flop and still you feel that "this is a complex spot".

-And how can't that not be when we are 200bb deep and a TP has so much EQ vs our hand?

I don't agree with raising... I think we help villain to play better (lose less/win more).... In the mean time I don't see we could vbet thin or bluff catch profitable on the river but this would be my plan (calling & trying to evaluate on next streets) - vs a reasonable continuation range (after we raise) I think we are in big trouble (and villain can construct that range easily)

•   "Any rules of thumb that you use here when deciding what to do ? "...

-not a rule... but win more vs villain's weak continuation hands is my decision maker (hands like AK8, KQ8 with bd2fd> etc should be my bottom when raising I think)

SPASSEWR...

"Id prefer raising if we could just ship flop"

   -ship flop vs what??? Don't get it...

" or raise smallish like u did and pot gii on good turns"

  -our EQ vs villain could not be bad but.....pot gii would be hard for me (only with 2 or an 8...can't see how other turn cards give us more value OTT when GII)

"This deep it gets tricky if we raise if our opp is not str8 forward. If villain is capable of rr bluffing flop or floating this w 1 pair and then c-jamming turned draws i prefer calling."-

I like this very very much especially when OP described villain as "good aggro reg"

THEMI...

"If you raised planning on raise folding to a committing 3bet, then I like it. The flop is so dry that villain isn't going to just bomb some crap kxxx hand over the top, and even those hands have decent equity."-

-I like this

But raising is good since we have serious reverse implied odds on turns and rivers, and villains perception of you will create more fold equity than you might have against a random villains. If you had a different image to villain, or a read that he will frequently rebluff flops I think we have to be careful about raise folding.

-key for me would be to understand this,please... My problem is that I can't and that's why I see raising as not a good decision... I expect random villain ALWAYS continue with 2P(with a k) or better, and let's say TP with bdNfd.... (This is more than half of a K+ cbing range and has good EQ vs 2TP. or better...)

 To expand on why I think this is "complex spot".....

Villain could respond to the same conclusion with different actions (some which make our raise good and others which don't).

Say he thinks our range is pretty polarized and holds Kxxx. He could either call (because he feels he has enough equity and blocks top 2p and top set. Or he could raise small (because he has blocker to top 2p and top set) and try to win the pot right there and close out what ever equity we have.  

@firemax:

Lot of questions, ill try to answer the ones u had for me:)

1: if stacks are shallow, like 100ish bbs or less...i am pretty sure we have a profitable flop raise-gii. Whether that has a higher +EV compared to calling is impossible to calc and very hard to guess wo better reads.

2: it gets tricky when deeper, but i know a lot of opponents at these stakes who will fold to a raise w Kxxx/AAxx unless they have a ton of bds which is still good for us even if they sometimes call w top set and if spr is close to 1 ott we have a prof turn jam unless turn is bad like A/J/K. I can easily be convinced that this is not thr best way to play this hand deep esp vs a good non str8 forward reg w hith a dynamic...but in general the bottom of villains range usually has a lot of eq vs our hands that are ahead vs his total range that we would still prefer a fold by him unless we have a draw or put ourselves in a spot where we are committed w a most of our stack behind.

I most likely call, and continue calling on all dry board runouts. Villian will definitely barrel AA, AKxx on turns that don't hit him. You have to remember, run outs that get scary for your hand also probably get scary for his range too by the river.