Common spot - just making sure.
Posted by Sean Fri
Posted by
Sean Fri
posted in
Low Stakes
Common spot - just making sure.
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
CO: $10.22
BTN: $6.04
Hero (SB): $8.36
BB: $4.00
UTG: $4.00
MP: $1.47
Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04
Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has As 5s Ad 6s
fold, fold, CO calls $0.04, BTN calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.16, BB raises to $0.56, fold, BTN calls $0.52, Hero raises to $2.28, BB calls $1.72, BTN calls $1.72
Flop: ($6.88, 3 players) 3c 2c 2s
Hero?
This comes up more than I want to think about, but I just want to make sure my reasoning is at least solid.
Btn is 88/20 over 152 hands. Likes sticking it in and gambling. Has called 3bets with JJ52, AA92, Q533, AKJ8, K632, KKT5, AKT8 all of various suited-ness but by no means mostly double suited. Has called a 4bet pre with Q533ss and KK98ds.
BB is fun, too. He's the very common 43/10 at these stakes with a close to 5% 3bet over 2.1k hands. As you can imagine, he loses a fair amount. He likes trying to bet me off hands pre and post, and knows I play mostly value. He might think I'm raising light in the sb to iso the limpers, but if he's paying attention he knows I only play big pots pre with some kind of AA. Still, in the 12 times I've seen his cards when he's 3bet, he's only had AAxx twice. Other 3bets have included AJT3ds, KT86ds, A965ss, KKJTss, (Where, in this case, ss= single suited.) Half of these hands have contained a single A. He's gone on to call a 4bet with T987ss (which is theoretically defensible), and that's the only one I have on him until this one.
So, obviously, by giving you all of this information, I'm just setting you up to agree with me, but I do want to have my head screwed on right. Theoretically, against ranges containing so few A blockers and that DO contain underpairs and non-premium rundowns (single suited and gapped) I should be reducing the SPR here and shoving any flop where I deem my equity enough - and that equity doesn't have to be much with what they've got behind. Dominating overpair+gs+bdnfd = enough, yeah? The pot is 6.88 on the flop, the bb has 1.72 behind, and the BTN has 3.76. So 3.3 to 1 if I shove and they both call, which they almost have to. 1/(1+3.3)= about 23%. And I figure I'm ahead here most of the time.
If I thought one of them HAD to have AAxx and the other was sure to have a good rundown or a pair that could flop trips v. my blocked aces, I'd be a LOT more careful. But since both of them can show up with a lot of non-premium stuff, I'm pretty sure I've put myself in a position postflop against their ranges to make an unexploitable shove. It's higher variance, yeah, but The whole mess is +EV, right?
Interested in thoughts.
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