check raise river instead of leading with book on backdoor flush

Posted by nassander

Posted by nassander posted in Low Stakes

Posted 10 years ago

check raise river instead of leading with book on backdoor flush

Hi,

I get in this spot a lot.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/13873523_030243AA25

Do you agree that this is a x/r spot and not a pot spot?

I find it hard to control myself to bet on the river but I think I should be checking because:

villain will rarely ever be able to raise my bet with worse for value
he will often bet a flush when checked to
he will be priced to call or talk himself into calling with some of his strong hands
also keeping in bluffs on backdoor draws that would fold to our river bet

I know that often the check raise will just get a fold, but I think overall it makes more money. I also think that stackwise he is less likely to fold once he puts in his first river bet. Thoughts?

Thanks

5 Comments

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Cthulu23 10 years ago

unless he's the biggest nit c/r seems superior both for range protection, getting value from bluffs and getting all his stack. And one more thing to take into acc is the flush card being the 9 so it skews his range more towards A and K high which probably valuebet.

nassander 9 years, 11 months ago

Thanks makes sense.

Kyyberi 9 years, 11 months ago

As with all decisions your thinking process can be:

What is his range?
How do I get best value against different parts of his range?
What line gives best overall value?

In his range here he could have 4 different types of hands:

A: smaller full house (Q4, 49, 99) but that is very unlikely
B: flush, medium to high rank
C: bluff catchers (straight, small flush)
D: air (missed draws, floats)

None of those will raise our bet on the river (rare exceptions might be the full houses) so against A, B and C we can win one bet. Against A or B it doesn't really matter if we bet or check, as opponent will either call or bet himself if checked to. Only difference might be in bet sizing (see below).

Against C we don't get any value if we check, as he will check behind.

Against D we don't get any value if we bet, but he might bluff if we check to him.

Unless there is big difference in bet sizing, like if opponent bets his value hands really smallish, it doesn't matter what we do when opponent has A or B. So the important thing is how often he has C or D? If he has C more often, bet is better. If he has D more often, check is better.

Of course this simple decision making assumes that opponent will fold A and B if hero check-raises. If hero estimates that opponent will bet-call with nut flush and/or he has full houses some of the times (and he calls the raise with those) it makes checking better. Meta game is also left out, so if hero wants to balance his check or bet ranges, that should be included in to decision making.

The idea is just to show an easy way to figure out what to do on the river.