Check back or bet flop

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Check back or bet flop

SB: $797.86
BB: $237.25
UTG: $226.30
HJ: $577.55
CO: $287.85
BN: $213 (Hero)
Dealt to Hero [ 2d Td Js Qc ]
NoSetNoBet folds
Latnemretsam folds
bambalaiyyo folds
Hero raises [$5.00 USD]
monk657 raises [$16.00 USD]
tigerose folds
Hero calls [$12.00 USD]
Flop ($36.00) 4 J 3 (2 Players)
SB checks
Sorry for not full conversion
My opponent is 29/22 3bet: 13% after 1k sample. I think his 3bet against BU steal might be even a little bit higher, but definitely over 10%.
His c/fold flop as PFR is 43% so I think he checks here most likely to c/call the flop. I am deciding between betting and checking back the flop.

1) When I check back turn doesnt play so great for me. I can continue on 2,8,9,T,J,Q non spades. I might call a bet on offsuit K and Q and T of spades but won't be excited about that. So basically around 60% of turn cards are bad for my hand.

2) When I bet I dont expect to have much of FE in this spot and will have to fold to a c/raise. However having a J of spades blocker might help me to represent spades. I also expect him to c/raise AA, KK, and AJ + spades, so I might have some FE on later streets.

What's your view on this spot?

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