Capped range - Facing raise on the river
Posted by menofold
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menofold
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Low Stakes
Capped range - Facing raise on the river
CO: $35.30 (Hero)
BN: $77.58
SB: $13.17
BB: $25.00
UTG: $25.00
Rake is $0.73
The hand is not only interesting for how we should play here, rather how we should play optimal on the river in Villains shoes.
First of all we should have bet here on the flop.
Our range is caped as we didn't bet or x-raise this flop. But still I can't find villain to bluff here that often - not at these stakes, especially as I did block bet here.
I did try to use the Pokerjuice BC-Simulations for telling us how many one- / two pair Queens he has in his range, I think these are the ones he could use to bluff with. If the Sims where right than Villain has a lot of these Queens in his range on the river.
I did give Villain the following range:
Pre: 50% wothout a 2% 3betting range OOP
Flop: TP or better, all wraps, any pair (7,T,Q) with GS
Turn: was check, so we can take out his nut straights w AK
River: same range as on the turn
Villains Value range on the river: could start with 7Q+ = 13% of river range
Villains Checking range on the river: all combos except the value range and hand with an Queen inside = 67% of river range
Villains Air- / Bluffing range on the river: could be all hand with an Queen in it = 20% of river range
Equity vs Villains Value range (incl. Q7, we split with) = 12%
Equity vs his Check- / Air range = 100%, for sure
So I guess as played we should only call if we think he is ever bluffing.
If villain bluffs with all his TP-Combos than the call is +EV 14$, If he never bluffs -EV 9,6$, certainly.
Now after writing all this down, I think in these scenario, even at these stakes the players will have some bluffs in their range, therefore we should call here.
Ok, I did just see that the whole thing with playing optimal in Villains shoes are to complicated for me, atm. Although PJ did tell me to take the following bluffs 4,5% of the river range / 23,5% out of the air range. But how I do get a feel for it, how much of my river range is value, in %? And than how I can find out which combos I do need to bluff with? I did put all QJ in to villains bluffing range = 8% of his river range. So still twice a much bluffs vs GTO bluffs. So I guess if we do have an villain who is capable of buffing, than he will over bluff in that scenario.
Here is a link to the PJ-Sims:
enter link description here
Would you have done the same input?
Loading 6 Comments...
i don't mind c/c flop by any means but I think there is a stronger case for betting.
I vote for calling the river raise.
Agreed with plolearnerguy, flop check is fine and I think we're a bit too strong to fold river.
I prefer betting the flop here as there’s a lot of worse hands than can call, maybe with a flush draw on the board i’d be more inclined to check as wet board will get raised more often. You also block all sets and have outs if you end up against low sets.
On the river your hand is fairly disguised, not many sets check flop and turn so he shouldn’t expect you to have many boats so I lean towards calling. I think it’s dangerous to ever assume someone is “never bluffing” although with strong reads maybe. You also block all boats so there’s not too many combos that beat you. Players at lower stakes often don’t fully understand how strong/weak their hand is in any given situation and so I would expect there’s some chance he’s betting nut straight for value. So basically there’s a chance he’s bluffing and a chance he is value betting with worse although low which is enough for me to call this.
Is there an argument to be made for a x/r on the flop? The fact that SB is short and not x/shoving here makes me think his range is quite draw heavy and that we will do well getting it in with him. My concern is BTN's large sizing which could be a tell. If it isn't, then we are even more incentivized to x/r as he's betting too often for this sizing.
I think that's a valid thought myself. BTN sizing could be a tell, but I think there are a lot of players that do bet too often for that sizing and without very specific reads I think it makes sense to consider x/r OTF.
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