Any merit to folding the river vs a tight vilian?

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Any merit to folding the river vs a tight vilian?

Blinds: $2.50/$5.00 (6 Players) BN: $1872.95
SB: $611.14
BB: $641.06 (Hero)
UTG: $1117.37
MP: $555.50
CO: $549.38
Preflop ($7.50) Hero is BB with 6 A 6 4
UTG raises to $17.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $12.50
Flop ($37.50) K A 6
Hero checks, UTG bets $23.50, Hero calls $23.50
Turn ($84.50) K A 6 8
Hero checks, UTG bets $61.12, Hero calls $61.12
River ($206.74) K A 6 8 7
Hero checks, UTG bets $152.80, Hero calls $152.80
Final Pot UTG wins and shows three of a kind, Kings.
UTG wins $509.34
Rake is $3.00

You can never get away from the river right? Villain does seem tight. and there is no merit for raising vs villain any earlier is there?

4 Comments

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jonna102 8 years, 6 months ago

To help reviewers find and be interested in this thread, could you please change the title to something that describes the situation? //Mod.

Edit: Poster changed the title, now looks good, tyvm!

midori 8 years, 6 months ago

River seems like a fold to me. A tight UTG range smacks this flop even though you weakly block AA and AK. Some rare straights got there if he had those, but more importantly, he doesn't have enough bluffs when you block Ac. He can have QJT and I guess that's about it, while having AK+ for value.

And yes, raising on flop/turn seems pretty thin.

paradigm24 8 years, 6 months ago

I think raising the flop is too thin, but I would definitely shove the turn. I think it's fair to assume that villain would bet most of his range on this flop. Against an entire 12% range, you have about 73% Eq on the turn. Against a reasonable turn bet calling range subset (AK+, wraps, combo draws) you have about 60% Eq. Given that you can easily stack off profitably and likely stack off for value, the only reason calling could be preferred is if villain is likely to make large river mistakes when you flat and you are unlikely to make such mistakes. Being OOP with essentially a bluff catcher on all non-club rivers, I think you are at a disadvantage in regards to the likelihood of future mistakes so I would shove.

As played I think it's very close on the river. I would slightly lean toward a fold. You could probably flip a coin though.

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