To help reviewers find and be interested in this thread, could you please change the title to something that describes the situation? //Mod.

You need 39.66% against his range and I would presume you don't have it. You should give him a range on odds oracle or poker juice and see.

Also I would presume his range is tighter than you think with him shipping into 5 others (Even though the others check). Even if a player has laggy pf tendencies they will tend to not go crazy in this spot.

As a side point you should think about your bet sizing. It does not make sense to bet half pot on this much of a wet board. If you have AAcc,jj,tt you are going to be betting bigger for value/protection/not knowing how to play the hand later. Personally, I am checking a lot of my ACC range 5 handed and looking to realise equity as I am in CO.

More like nut draw blockers, so you never GII against the nfd. But, well stuff happens, so much money in the pot and well at least overpair + gutter.

Isn't it just the one nut blocker with the Ac? Why are you betting this flop here 5 handed? Why should I ignore the hand if you posted this to the forum?

This is indeed a fold on the flop, but I'm sure we've all seen the tilt monster and can relate to how hands sometimes look better than they really are. Posting to a forum can still serve as a reminder to all of us how expensive tilt can be, and so I think this is still a valuable post.

We have oe+overpair+nutblockr. I dont think we can ever fold this to one bet otf, but i agrre that checking is better coz we cant really bet fold with this spr and this much eq. But u often get jammed on so your blockrr is useless then. So id check call a single bet and bluff clubs and donkshove straights

Interesting thought about check-calling:
- Let's assume BTN bets pot and it folds back to us.
- Assume also that his range is simply JT+
- Assume we over shove our bluff cards and he always folds worse than the nuts

How will it play out:
i) Nut outs (6)
ii) Bluffing cards (9) clubs and (4) Qo or 7o
iii) Strange cards - (2) Aces
iv) Blanks - 45 - 6 - 9 - 4 - 2 = 24

EV Equation:
a) Folding = 486
b) Calling with a PLAN
-> (i * 6/45) + (ii * 13/45) + (iii * 2/45) + (iv * 24/45)

EV of cases:
i) 486 + (2 * 112.5) = 711
ii) 711
iii) Let's assume we win 75% of the pot -> (486-112.5) + (112.5 *3 * 0.75) = 627
iv) We check, he bets, we fold -> 486 - 112.5 = 374

Weighted sum:
-> (711 * 6/45) + (711 * 13/45) + (627 * 2/45) + (374 * 24/45) = 527
-> or +8bb

Wait I forgot to account for times when he has nuts when we bluff shove
- very low percentage of the time on Q or 7 he has straight (3%*)
- now the weighted sum equals:
-> (711 * 6/45) + (711 * 9/45) + (711 * 4/45 * 0.97) + (627 * 2/45) + (374 * 24/45) = 525 (negligable difference)

Looks like your plan of calling and bluffing has merit. However all the assumptions that I made are in your favor and starts calling with some non-nut hands on the turn when you bluff shove I would guess floating quickly becomes worse than folding.

Looking at hands that would make a 'good candidates' to call in his shoes. They are few and far between. For example on 3c turn he only has 6% flushes**

I like the float here vs the right opponent. High variance !!!

-* really closer to 4% but rounded down to account for the equity we still have when called
-** assuming his pfr is 20% and flop range is JT+