Call the flop x/r in position vs. a likely set, or just shove over it 100BB deep?
Posted by AllinAMar
Posted by
AllinAMar
posted in
Low Stakes
Call the flop x/r in position vs. a likely set, or just shove over it 100BB deep?
100BB Effective $0.02 / $0.05
(UTG)
(MP) Main Villain $5
(CO) Villain ~ $5
(BTN) Hero $5
(SB)
(BB)
(MP) Main Villain opens pot $0.17, (CO) calls $0.17, (BTN) Hero calls $0.17 with Ad Jd Jh 3h
FLOP ($0.58): 5d 6d Ah
Both Villains check, Hero bets $0.46 with TP, NFD and BDFD, (MP) Main Villain x/r pots to $1.96, (CO) folds
The total pot is now ($3.00), Hero can either call $1.50, creating a 0.64 SPR on the turn (pot size ($4.50) with $2.87 behind) or shove... Against likely sets 55xx, 66xx and AAxx Hero is ~41%, against less likely monster wrap and weak fd like 4d 7d 8c 9c Hero is 58%.
Only around 30 hands on Villain, I think around 28 /14, seems like he's only x/r potting here with a set.
I don't think I can make a case for checking behind on the flop because I don't really mind a x/r, but once I got it, should I be taking the good price, call and fold to a shove on a blank or paired turn, or just shove flop with basically no fold equity?
I shoved flop and lost on a brick run out to Villains set 55KQcs.
Loading 3 Comments...
I d shove. Turn SPR almost makes you wanna call even on blanks. Implied odds are also super low as you can win so little more when you hit. Alternativly you could nit fold against a super nit.
+1. Aldo , in this SPR the 2 plays should yield a similar EV. (he s not folding on flush turn, you should not fold on pairing turn- coz he can do this w a combodraw)
You need 43% to break even, so shoving is slightly -EV against sets but very +EV against wrap/fd combos. Not to mention you also block top set
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