Its obviously would be better if we can see the preflop stats, but feels like it's pretty close. I think we should be jamming here, but we might be up against KKxx, QQxx a lot if the villain is a passive player.

Grunching.

I'm okay with preflop.

Flop, I think you want to bet/fold here. If you check/call, you're setting yourself up to potentially get valuetowned for multiple streets.

As played, call the turn. Even for a loose passive player, they can still be betting worse but I don't think they'll call a raise with worse. And folding here after calling flop isn't reasonable: nothing's changed unless someone had 77 and a different reason to call the flop.

I suspect villain will play pretty face-up on the river given their described tendencies and decreasing bet size (proportionally), so I think your river decision will be easier than one might expect.

But you'll still be guessing. And that could have been mitigated by leading the flop, imo.

Hey Chris Bowling, I think if you were HU OTT we could debate call or jam. In theory it would be nice to show up on the river with some two pair+ sometimes after x/c flop and turn, but in general you don't of course have to worry about balance as much in a population like this. I think because there's a decent chance of seeing the river MW with another call here I would lean jam because as you alluded to I think most recreational/weaker players in general will pot the turn with top and middle set there trying to avoid tricky rivers, so I would think you are actually up against a little bit wider of a range than we think. Perhaps a lot of wraps, pair+draw and more rare KQ+. Players tend to overplay their wraps from what I have seen to where they don't throw some of them into their checking ranges, so you could see a good amount of those here with that turn sizing.

Could he have some hands like KKJT or AQQJ that he feels like he can size down with and could he just be betting incorrectly as far as sizing OTT with KK/QQ/KQ? Sure, but most of those guys likely just bet larger again, so I do feel like you can jam profitably here and avoid a lack of playability on the river.

Bottom set is always pretty tricky and we often do well by playing it a little slower, but this hand also shows why we want to avoid smaller pairs in general. Of course your preflop play is fine having the nut suit with the pair, but just good to reiterate that point still.

Okay thanks guys. I ended up being good against the CO, but the utg limper had QQ and overcalled my turn jam haha. But from what you guys said, doesn't sound like my jam was too bad.