Bottom set in 3-way pot from BB 50 PLO
Posted by Chris Bowling
Posted by
Chris Bowling
posted in
Low Stakes
Bottom set in 3-way pot from BB 50 PLO
Global Poker
Stack sizes on flop:
BB - $48.75 - Hero - Ac5c5h8h
UTG - $52.45 - Limping recreational player - No reads
CO - $95 - Losse passive recreational player
Preflop:
UTG limps, CO raises to $2.25, Hero calls, UTG calls
Flop: ($7) Kc Qd 5s
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $7, Hero calls $7, UTG calls $7
Turn: ($28) 7h
BB checks, UTG checks, CO bets $14, Hero???
Hero has $39.50 left behind. Should we be calling, folding, or jamming here?
Preflop, I generally play pretty tight from the blinds, but trying to open up a little bit more and this hand seems like a profitable defend with an Ace high suit and set potential. But it gets a little dicy on this texture. If this a good defend preflop?
On the flop, I face a pot size bet. I consider folding, but a lot of KQ combos could potential play like this too, so I feel like calling flop and folding to another large bet on the turn. The utg limper calls which could possible be a slow play with QQ or KK, but can also be KQ or any number of straight draws.
On the turn, we check to the PFR and he bets half pot. This makes me feel a little better about my hand since a lot of recreational players will bet a sizing in accordance to their hand strength, but its still possible he could have a higher set, but be trying to price in smaller ones and 2 pairs since their isn't a lot of money left behind. Here, should I be jamming for value from KQ? Or just calling and seeing how it plays how? Which seems a little weird because we will def have some bad visibility on some rivers? What do yal think about this spot?
Loading 4 Comments...
Its obviously would be better if we can see the preflop stats, but feels like it's pretty close. I think we should be jamming here, but we might be up against KKxx, QQxx a lot if the villain is a passive player.
Grunching.
I'm okay with preflop.
Flop, I think you want to bet/fold here. If you check/call, you're setting yourself up to potentially get valuetowned for multiple streets.
As played, call the turn. Even for a loose passive player, they can still be betting worse but I don't think they'll call a raise with worse. And folding here after calling flop isn't reasonable: nothing's changed unless someone had 77 and a different reason to call the flop.
I suspect villain will play pretty face-up on the river given their described tendencies and decreasing bet size (proportionally), so I think your river decision will be easier than one might expect.
But you'll still be guessing. And that could have been mitigated by leading the flop, imo.
Hey Chris Bowling, I think if you were HU OTT we could debate call or jam. In theory it would be nice to show up on the river with some two pair+ sometimes after x/c flop and turn, but in general you don't of course have to worry about balance as much in a population like this. I think because there's a decent chance of seeing the river MW with another call here I would lean jam because as you alluded to I think most recreational/weaker players in general will pot the turn with top and middle set there trying to avoid tricky rivers, so I would think you are actually up against a little bit wider of a range than we think. Perhaps a lot of wraps, pair+draw and more rare KQ+. Players tend to overplay their wraps from what I have seen to where they don't throw some of them into their checking ranges, so you could see a good amount of those here with that turn sizing.
Could he have some hands like KKJT or AQQJ that he feels like he can size down with and could he just be betting incorrectly as far as sizing OTT with KK/QQ/KQ? Sure, but most of those guys likely just bet larger again, so I do feel like you can jam profitably here and avoid a lack of playability on the river.
Bottom set is always pretty tricky and we often do well by playing it a little slower, but this hand also shows why we want to avoid smaller pairs in general. Of course your preflop play is fine having the nut suit with the pair, but just good to reiterate that point still.
Okay thanks guys. I ended up being good against the CO, but the utg limper had QQ and overcalled my turn jam haha. But from what you guys said, doesn't sound like my jam was too bad.
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