blind vs blind spot on the turn, does indifference break down on the turn?
Posted by egcornish
Posted by
egcornish
posted in
Low Stakes
blind vs blind spot on the turn, does indifference break down on the turn?
BN: $173.74
SB: $161.72 (Hero)
BB: $188.02
UTG: $129.74
HJ: $125.04
CO: $100
SB: $161.72 (Hero)
BB: $188.02
UTG: $129.74
HJ: $125.04
CO: $100
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
2
5
6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
Flop
($6.50)
K
2
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $4,
BB calls $4
Turn
($14.50)
K
2
Q
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $10.02,
Hero calls $10.02
Villain is a pretty tight player, only defending his BB in this spot about 50% with 45% calls, and 5% 3 bets.
He has a 45% fold vs 3b otf, which sort of puts him at having a Q with some backdoors as his weakest hand. My question is, if villain is going to value bet a hand like KQ here, do you think indifference breaks down completely and thus even my strongest bluff catchers like 92 should be folded here? Is this fold more or less standard ott and did I just get blinded by the fact that I had 2 pair?
He has a 45% fold vs 3b otf, which sort of puts him at having a Q with some backdoors as his weakest hand. My question is, if villain is going to value bet a hand like KQ here, do you think indifference breaks down completely and thus even my strongest bluff catchers like 92 should be folded here? Is this fold more or less standard ott and did I just get blinded by the fact that I had 2 pair?
River
($34.54)
K
2
Q
9
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB checks
Final Pot
Hero has
9
2
5
6
BB has
J
Q
K
7
BB
wins $32.51
In case your unfamiliar with what I mean by indifference, based on the villains sizing he needs 1 value bet for every .95 bluffs
V to B ratio of 1:.95, re looking at this hand again I don't think he has .95 bluffs for every 1 value bet, especially when you consider that his whole range has showdown value+position meaning alot of his weakest hands probably realize at least 10% of the pot from checking back. That would make the turn minimum defense frequency 36% (though this is irrelevant if indifference is actually breaking down). In other words should I just be check folding my whole range here?
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