BB / 100s
Posted by Dondonkie
Posted by
Dondonkie
posted in
Low Stakes
BB / 100s
Hey Guys
I am playing on boss media and the games are really soft at PLO 30 - PLO 100. I got a 30BB / 100 stat, but i cant figure out if this is durable in the long run. if its even remotely doable i will soon move up, but i want 100 buyins before moving up, as i never want to ever have to deposit again and fool myself into saying "i am a winning player", as so many losing players have done before me.
Breakdown of win is something like this: 10 BB / 100 for non showdown and 20BB / 100 for showdown.
So what do you think, has it been luck? I have run a tiny bit over EV for allin EV.
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You're not running bad, I think that's fair to say. ;-)
All-in EV measures one aspect of luck, there are others. It's motivating to have a solid win rate without running far > EV, but you can also run good by getting more than your fair share of good starting hands, etc.
Keep playing and see what happens. Try to get out of the rake trap and never look back!
Hehe thanks for the encouragement.
I noticed the rake is kinda insane compared to my winnings even at that WR. Would you advise to move up before having the 100 buyins - provided i wont ever deposit again?
Yes, I would. PLO swings are nasty, but not so much when you have a large edge. If your true winrate is 10+ bb/100 there's no need for 100 BI BRM. More like 50 BI, or less, depending on your comfort zone.
Take controlled shots when the games are extra good. Let's say you have 60 BI for $50PLO and it's a weekend evening with some very good $100PLO games going. That's a good opportunity to take a shot for 2-3 BI and see what happens. No stress, just pick the best table and play your best.
With a sensible stop-loss limit (say, 10% of your roll) there's not a lot of extra risk-of-ruin in shotting, as long as you game select well.
asking if winrate is 'good' or 'sustainable' is sort of meaningless IMHO. games change and evolve (i.e. your opponents may adjust to your play after awhile or learn from past mistakes.. yes it can happen at small stakes too).
you're probably better off reviewing your sessions and asking if you could have played any particular hands any better. could you have made a value bet here? should you have folded there?
having said that.. having a 10 or 20 bb/100 win rate is pretty good. but that in itself IMO isn't enough to draw any firm conclusions about your play - unless if that was averaged over 500K or 1M hands, at which point i would wonder why you're asking the forum questions about your play when it's us who should be asking you!
Realistically, you probably won't manage to sustain that winrate thanks to the rake (I've never heard of a 30bb/100 winner in low or micro-stakes PLO over a significant sample). However, I would certainly look at taking shots higher if possible (use the rules Zen suggested) as escaping the lower stakes and their evil rake is gonna be excellent for your bottom line.
i assume you have a job and you're not playing for a living. in which case 100BI is a little too conservative IMO.
you can always replenish your BR if things go south (duh). also, as zen said, game select. you may be surprised at what you find.
on top of that i would also add if you can identify specifically the edge you have against your opponents at your current limit, if you're looking to move up you should just do so (within reason - don't suddenly move from PLO50 to PLO600 for obvious reasons).
Hey, thanks for hte reply both.
Yeah i know i can reload, i just dont like the idea because alot of poker players tell themselves they are winning players, but just got on a downswing, when in fact they are losing players that went on a heater.
I am only playing poker in my spare time, but i love to improve and maybe perhaps one day it will be enough to live off. One can have dreams :-).
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