Just looking for some quick thoughts on this hand.  

UTG  unknown (cover)

MP (cover) Unknown to me but a friend told me he's loose pre but pretty tight post in bigger pots.  I wouldn't consider this pot we're about to be in a big pot, but this is what I'm working with going into the hand.

Hero/btn (580)

2/5/10 UTG limps, 2 folds MP limps, folds to btn I pot 60 AA93sss blinds fold, both limpers call.

Flop Q52rs(200)

Check, MP 150, I (520)

So I need ~42% to Gii here assuming no FE.  It seems really close and looking back I'm leaning towards folding as the sim I did gave me ~40.5%.  I gave him a leading range of stuff like 2pr's, wraps, pr+oe, Q+nut gutter etc.

So, my questions is should I just make an explo fold here given he's making a mistake by having a leading range on this texture that's imbalanced too heavily towards value and make up for that by crushing his significantly weaker checking range?