Bad three street bluff? 20PLO
Posted by Darley_Arabian
Posted by
Darley_Arabian
posted in
Low Stakes
Bad three street bluff? 20PLO
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
SB: $36.35 (Hero)
BB: $77.74
UTG: $20.00
MP: $20.90
CO: $20.00
BN: $46.78
BB: $77.74
UTG: $20.00
MP: $20.90
CO: $20.00
BN: $46.78
UTG is TAG 19/11/1. Very positionally aware and straightforward. I expect him to have a very tight range potting from UTG. I expect the BB (44/20/8) to peel wide, especially after I flat.
I do not have thousands of hands on each player but I have played with them a decent amount and I do not multitable, I pay attention to specific hands people show down and try to extrapolate potential ranges for different situations.
I do not have thousands of hands on each player but I have played with them a decent amount and I do not multitable, I pay attention to specific hands people show down and try to extrapolate potential ranges for different situations.
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
J
K
K
2
, , ,
Flop
($2.10)
4
6
A
, ,
UTG can have AAxx a decent amount of the time and the BB rarely does as he has a 3 bet stat of 8%. I guess he would have 3 bet a lot of AAxx hands pre. I lead out hoping to get HU with the UTG player. He is tight and I felt capable of folding by the river. At this point I am trying to set up for a three street bluff. I do not like my sizing on the flop though. I am basically trying to rep a 'protection bet' by donking into two players so I think I should have bet more. Something like 1.90.
With my blocker, unless the board pairs, I am thinking there are very few hands that can call a PSB in the river if i set it up right. Is this the right thinking? Or are my estimations way off?
With my blocker, unless the board pairs, I am thinking there are very few hands that can call a PSB in the river if i set it up right. Is this the right thinking? Or are my estimations way off?
Turn
($4.90)
4
6
A
3
,
River
($12.90)
4
6
A
3
5
, ,
Final Pot
UTG wins $37.32
Rake is $0.38
Rake is $0.38
My question to people is should I even be making this play at these stakes? I am completely unsure and would appreciate any advice from people more familiar with these games as I have only recently starting playing 20PLO. On the one hand, yes people are calling way too much and maybe this was just a misconceived play (possibly FPS), on the other hand, there is the chance that I just got unlucky with the specific hand he had (although I cannot work out what he could raise me with here) and I do not want to be put off from taking a profitable line in general from one specific example.
N.B. Given that this hand has happened I am aware that my perception of UTG being straightforward should be altered.
Loading 4 Comments...
depents on the server, on ipoker i would not bluff this, they catch all the way.
Generally i like the play, would pot it on all streets cause you are superpolarized and can't affort giving good odds.
I would assume it was bad luck that you ran maybe in Qss or Jss, a smaller flush or a set will prolly fold otr. I would take a note that this guy is not a bluffing victim for future plays. But you can barrel big time your nuts and expect to get paid off :)
This hand shows the reason why I wouldn't do blocker bluffs in general at PLO25 or lower. Success/failure ratio is not good enough imo.
One of the biggest problems players have in low stakes games is that they don't understand relative hand values. They also don't understand hand frequencies. So with a low flush here, they don't actually understand how weak their hand is against someone who's betting 3 streets. They also don't understand how often they are dominated. So many end up calling down.
Your plan of betting this hand plays directly into their strategy, and makes what should be a weakness actually be an accidentally correct play against your strategy. That's not how you win against these types of players.
Incorrect play for the stakes...
Incorrect fashion...should pot pot pot or pot pot value bet
Note: trouble with making flushBlocker plays from flop...especially oop...is that you need two things to happen... you need a the board not pair and the flush to believe you.
I think that by starting this on the flop as a lead, when called on flop...you have to continue turn...and when called on turn you have to guess whether up against a draw (set or skeptical 3pair) or skeptical flush...so on the river (if board hasn't paired yet) you are put in a tough spot----
To give up or not..
If you want to try the play...i like x/R flop ...only problem is if we are vs a set we might pot commit opp on turn and poof goes our FE...best situation is flop goes x/x and we pot turn and river or our flop x/R takes down the pot.
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