Awkward river spot - PLO10 - Raise/call, Raise/fold, other?
Posted by Krisnpy
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Krisnpy
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Low Stakes
Awkward river spot - PLO10 - Raise/call, Raise/fold, other?
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 players)
BN: $30.72 (Hero)
SB: $13.21
BB: $7.37
UTG: $10.38
MP: $10.98
CO: $10.00
Pre-flop ($0.35) Hero is BN with [3d Kh Qc Qd]
1 fold, MP raises to $0.32, CO calls $0.32, Hero calls $0.32, SB calls $0.27, 1 fold.
Flop ($1.38) [Ks Jh 2d]
SB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks.
Turn ($1.38) [Ks Jh 2d] [Qh]
SB checks, MP checks, CO checks, Hero checks.
River ($1.38) [Ks Jh 2d Qh] [Jd]
SB bets $1.20, MP calls $1.20, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.50, SB raises to $12.89 and is all in, MP folds...
What next?
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When we raise river having taken such a passive line multi-way in position, are we not saying we never have KKxx, KJxx and JJxx... Therefore when the river comes the only value hand we can really have is QQxx... Therefore if the villain perceives us to have a range of QQxx and other holdings that would never call a re-raise would it be a case where Raise/fold is the better line?
I think the rule is:
When u have very strong hand OTR but not nuts and someone bets into you - you need to call. You Rarely/Sometimes fold, but also Rarely (almost never) reraise.
I think OTR you needed to call and not rr - no matter how it looks nitty...
~ After you rr to 4,5 and got rrr to 12,89 ~
Here KK and JJ are better from you. You block KK and KJ - so JJ is probably the only hand he might do this move with...
Looks like SB had plan to c/r OTF counting on someone's bet, but it failed. OTT he couldn't bet as AT is nuts now ( additionally 2 hearts are on the board). It's weird that he leads now OTR, but he needs to believe someone has worse calling hand (worse FH or just FH which is ofc worse hand than quads). Why doesn't he c/r now when obv there are no AT hands...? If he expects call OTR by FHs, why does not he expect VB w/ FHs when he plans to c/r? Not so important...
I think the (most) important things are:
(1) you don't rr if you don't have nuts OTR
(2) if someone bets, you "somehow" rr, and got rrr OTR - what's possibility that he does it with worse hand that you have - and there are 2 better hands than yours?
All this leads to my vote for - "call".
Raise/ fold my man. People will call with worse, but at the same time, noone's gonna raise worse for value. I've always convinced myself in these spots that kj is gonna raise, but they always show up with kk/jj.
Nice raise, fold to shove. You will always get called by KJ.
Agree with above, I think the raise is fine so long as you can fold to a shove. Certainly KJ is calling at these stakes, and I wouldn't even be shocked to see a terrible call from AT. Once villain jams though, as unlikely as it is, he just has to have KK or JJ I would think (unless we have a super-strong read which we don't).
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