Are you sick enough to fold?
Posted by Andrew Sweeney
Posted by
Andrew Sweeney
posted in
High Stakes
Are you sick enough to fold?
UTG: $4925.60
HJ: $2055
CO: $2274
BN: $3353.25
SB: $861.25
BB: $1216 (Hero)
HJ: $2055
CO: $2274
BN: $3353.25
SB: $861.25
BB: $1216 (Hero)
The small blind was the spot at the table so that's my main reason for defending a fairly weak hand oop. He's the type that can stack off very badly so i'm fine with the defend with a suited Ace alone.
The button is one of the better regs in the game , before i call river i say something like , 'i hate you so much ' or w/e : )
Is this ever a fold for anyone vs decent reg who is never raising worse for value?
Also it's not likely at all for him to bluff raise randomly imo and I have the 2c blocker.
It's just they always seem to have it in this spot.
Is anyone sick enough to make a play with a bare 4c or 7c blocker after calling with a medium flush on the turn?
Also any other feedback on any part of the hand sizing etc very welcomed. Cheers!
The button is one of the better regs in the game , before i call river i say something like , 'i hate you so much ' or w/e : )
Is this ever a fold for anyone vs decent reg who is never raising worse for value?
Also it's not likely at all for him to bluff raise randomly imo and I have the 2c blocker.
It's just they always seem to have it in this spot.
Is anyone sick enough to make a play with a bare 4c or 7c blocker after calling with a medium flush on the turn?
Also any other feedback on any part of the hand sizing etc very welcomed. Cheers!
Preflop
($15.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
2
A
6
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $35, BN calls $35, SB calls $30, Hero calls $25
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $35, BN calls $35, SB calls $30, Hero calls $25
Flop
($140.00)
5
Q
J
(4 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks,
CO checks,
BN checks
Turn
($140.00)
6
(4 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $85,
CO folds,
BN calls $85,
SB folds
River
($310.00)
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $225,
BN raises to $985,
Hero calls $760
Final Pot
BN has
7
4
Q
8
BN
wins $2276
Loading 17 Comments...
If we all lived in GTO world we should of course fold this.....in the real world - I doubt it somehow
I can't bring myself to fold this, but I would bet that it's a losing call against many opponents. It's a rare few people who will bluff with the 4c here. Rightfully so, because opponents don't fold often enough to the raise.
To sum up, you should fold... but I mean, no one is.
There is an interesting contrast between similar situations like this in PLO and NL. The equivalent in NL is to have only 1 combo, meanwhile in PLO ofc there is a lot more combos of 74ccXX that get to the river. Thus.. say if the player is spazzing out (or misclicking, or getting too thin, or making a crazy bluff) some small constant Y% of the time, in NL it can make it a call but in PLO it's still a fold (given the many more nut combos).
There's a few things helping you get to that 33% number like that he prolly doesnt have that many hands in his preflop calling range that contain 74cc, although seeing the hand that he showed down I guess it could be more than I think.
You also have the 2c ofc, which blocks exactly 1/2 the hands that beat you lol You said he is a good 5/10 reg and I'm assuming you're a good reg as well at 5/10 so you must have some range of bluffs here meaning he should have a small range of re-bluffs I think. As others mentioned, it is possible he has 7c or 4c and is bluff-raising with them. People said that would be too sick but it seems like if you're going to have a bluff-raising range here on the river at all, it might as well just be the hands that have 7c or 4c in them. It seems like if someone just bluff raised like KJ98 it might be pretty spewy but not "sick". So if you're going to bluff those then you might as well pick up a tiny bit more fold equity by making your hands with 7c or 4c the main part of you bluff-raising range since you might get the Axcc to fold every now and then.
And I guess some small percentage of the time he is value betting Kxcc if he thinks you'll b/c with worse flushes, although that seems a little optimistic. If we add all that up I think he may have bluffs like 15% and Kxcc like 5%, getting us almost 2/3 of the way there. So, that's a round-a-bout way of saying I think the play is a semi-easy fold in theory, but ofc we all know it can be different in practice.
I dunno what it is about the nutflush blinding people from big absolute hand stength, and little relative hand strength.
Now on the river I think this is a fold against the majority of human opponents. Note that he checked back on the turn in position on a QJ5cc board, where he would bet most of his sets and a lot of his QJ+flushdraw, KT+flushdraw type hands. So given that he called your turnbet his range is more weighted to low/medium flushes.
Also strictly combinatorial speaking 7c4c constitutes more than 5.6% of all XcYc hands on the river, and given the action this should be even higher.
And lastly I think this is great spot to watch for timing tells, most players that are capable of bluffing here with for instance 7c8c would still need to tank a little before making this raise.
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