Probably call turn.  Yeah, it's a spot where he picks up more equity on turn and we'll be OOP on rivers, which is tough.  But, I think if we look at his turn b/ca range we're going to be losing money, or not doing as well as we will with a x/ca. 

For range considerations if we're jamming this combo our x/ca range on brick rivers is pretty narrow or non-existant.  While there aren't a ton of total bricks, they still account for 20% of rivers, which isn't insignificant.  On non T diamond rivers we should be able to find a fold and feel pretty OK about it as we don't have any removal effects and we should be protected.  Qo,Jo are probably calls?  Not entirely sure.  9o,6o,5o are also probably calls.  Think those would be interesting rivers to sim.  Seems like we rarely improve on those 9o,6o,5o rivers(they're probably infrequent for villain to, but more than we do) so we're near the top of our range on those river.

I do feel that on the turn x/r is best given he is an unknown and betting only half pot. I think the half pot bet discounts his strong hands quite heavily. Since our visibility is so poor on the river I feel that check raising will be best.

I'd also prefer a c/r given the stats so far. there are few hands that beat us right now but rivers get tough to play on most cards. 

I am not too worried about range-balancing as our c/c range ott will often consist of strong draws or 1pair+draw hands that will improve often enough otr to either lead, c/c or c/r. we could also consider c/c river with AQxx (or actually any Axxx) on blanks  if we expect villain to be overaggro and polarized (not vbetting thinly, ch back w/Kings up ...).

snap c-r, dont need to balance vs this guy and youre always ahead except for the 2% of the time hes milking set+big FD

I think you guys are reading way too much into sizing here.  It's either A) a spot where villain is betting small with a polarized range, in which case calling seems better, or B) he's betting range with this sizing, and calling still becomes better.  Jamming simply for protecting is just not gaining us enough compared to how much we're losing when called.  

I'd be curious to see if anyone can come up with bet/calling range for villain that we're doing well against.

I tend to agree with Overbet56. We are mainly getting called on the turn by better hands and range-wise it is nice to have a calling range on brick rivers. So as usual it depends on villains preflop range, cbet frequencies, betsizing etc. to determine the best play. Some people here put a lot of emphasis on Villains cbet size on flop and turn and against many players I think that can be a good read. Fish tend to bet bigger with top set. So, I have made two calculations. The first calculation is not reading anything into his betsize while the second calculation assumes that he would not bet this size with a set without a FD. I think the true EV is probably somewhere in between.

I have put Villain on a 12% preflop based on the few hands we have on him. I would consider about 6% standard in this spot, so 12% could be a bit wide.

Flop and turn I think are a pretty standard double barrel with almost his entire range, so I have not narrowed that down much. I assume he cbets flop 100% and turn with dd,56+,K+ (96%). Even with such a wide range he is able to stack off with A8+ or better 56% of the time. 

So, if we put nothing into his betsize I think the EV of shoving is about $20:
http://hh.pokerjuice.com/report_0b687149-b83c-485e-8a31-672ba835cf26 

As Overbet mentioned we can see that we only have 15% against his SOR so it is mainly a protection play and I personally think that a call is better in this case.

If we have a read that he is not betting a big set without a FD like this the EV is much higher:
http://hh.pokerjuice.com/report_5ea442b8-a499-4d8d-9116-988ea8b95f43

In this case I would obviously go for XR. 

In both case my assumptions are:

Stack off range: A8+
Calling range: 56+:dd,9TJ+

If you think some of my assumptions are way off, let me know. I am very open to suggestions :)

Morten

it all comes down to our first impression on villain. during the session it would be very important to review quickly those 10hands we have on villain and base our decision on what we can see. if nothing out of the ordinariny happened so far  I agree that c/c is the standart play, but if we get an indication that he is just having fun clicking random buttons (which is not unlikely given his high vpip over 10hands)  then we would make a big mistake by not maximizing our value by shoving.

Sry for offtopic but how do you post a hand this way, with screennames hided. Using HEM 1, tried a couple of different things, converted on pokerhands.org and tried to copy/paste didnt work. If i post the HEM HH it will show screennames right. thx guys!

Results? :D