AQ98ds good enough to push? PLO50
Posted by vanhoover
Posted by
vanhoover
posted in
Low Stakes
AQ98ds good enough to push? PLO50
BB: $57.81
HJ: $49.25
CO: $76.33 (Hero)
BN: $50
SB: $35.46
HJ: $49.25
CO: $76.33 (Hero)
BN: $50
SB: $35.46
Preflop
($0.75)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
9
8
A
HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB raises to $5, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
HJ folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BN folds, SB raises to $5, BB folds, Hero calls $3.50
SB is loose player - 46/27 with 14% 3bet after 2k hands. He resteals form SB about 20% of hands. So I have here easy call.
Flop
($10.75)
7
J
5
(2 Players)
SB bets $7.50,
Hero raises to $32.53,
SB calls $22.96, and is all in
He cbets in 3bet pots 76% of time. On this board I assume, he will be doing it with J, QQ+, pair+flush draw, naked nut flush draw, sets and straight draws. Its hard to say if he will cbet here with total air. If so than its better to me.
My hand is too weak to call so I have an option to fold or push. If I push all in then I expect call from NFD, sets, wraps, and fold from weak Jx or overpairs.
My equity after call will be about 27% so I need to get rid of him 38% of time, right?
My equity after call: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7hJc5c&g=oh&h1=AhQh9d8d&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
If I'm counting right he should fold 58% of his cbeting range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/count?d=Qh+Ah+9d+8d+7h+Jc+5c&g=oh&h1=%28J%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%24ss%2C+QQ%2B%24ss%2C+Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B87%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
So my push is EV+ and I'm winning 58%*18$+(71,42*27%-30,46$)*42%=5,74$
If he calls my shove wider or cbets wider, then I need less folds and my equity should increase
during playing this hand I put my hand in top of folding range so if i get called I'm not in very bad shape. And I should have enough folding equity vs wide 3bet and cbet range when I have blockers to straight draws
My hand is too weak to call so I have an option to fold or push. If I push all in then I expect call from NFD, sets, wraps, and fold from weak Jx or overpairs.
My equity after call will be about 27% so I need to get rid of him 38% of time, right?
My equity after call: http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7hJc5c&g=oh&h1=AhQh9d8d&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
If I'm counting right he should fold 58% of his cbeting range.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/count?d=Qh+Ah+9d+8d+7h+Jc+5c&g=oh&h1=%28J%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%5B7%2B%5D%24ss%2C+QQ%2B%24ss%2C+Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B87%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&h2=%28Ac%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%5B8%2B%5D%3Acc%2C+JJ%5B76%2B%5D%24ss%2C+89T%5B7%2CJ%2C5%5D%2C+77%5B88%2B%5D%24ss%2C+689%5BT%2CJ%2C5%5D%24ss%2C+%5BJ%2C7%2C5%5D%3Acc%29%3A20%25&s=generic
So my push is EV+ and I'm winning 58%*18$+(71,42*27%-30,46$)*42%=5,74$
If he calls my shove wider or cbets wider, then I need less folds and my equity should increase
during playing this hand I put my hand in top of folding range so if i get called I'm not in very bad shape. And I should have enough folding equity vs wide 3bet and cbet range when I have blockers to straight draws
Turn
($73.74)
7
J
5
6
(2 Players)
River
($73.74)
7
J
5
6
6
(2 Players)
Final Pot
SB has
3
A
J
T
Hero has
Q
9
8
A
Hero
wins $68.92
Loading 6 Comments...
I think you re abusing math
I mean, you said yourself *My hand is too weak to call so I have an option to fold or push
If you do opt for a push, you do need some outs for times you are called, and your hand is non nutted and really far fetched
It is always possible that you hit few outs, but what you want is winning play and not far streched EV plus spot
Yeah--I kind of think that the math is maybe being overused here. I think making these kinds of calculations isn't all that useful when the opponent isn't making decisions on a similar basis. After 2k hands with villain, I have to think that you had some sense that the guy is calling that flop raise super-light. I think that's a bad play on his part, but it's a worse play on your part if you're shoving double-gutter/blockers/backdoor flush draw (I'm not a math whiz, but I'm thinking you were probably something like ~40% against his hand, and way worse against any two clubs and a pair or an overpair like KKxx) knowing that villain can't find the fold button in most cases.
I am obviously making a gross generalization based on one hand, but based on my experience with these kinds of villians, expecting a fold 58% of the time here seems optimistic. I am a nit, but I probably would've just called the c-bet and played the turn in position with the villian's PSB left. But I'm a nit...
yeah he's not folding when he bets that amount with these stacksizes
Actually, this is a pretty easy hand to play in position here. Just call and see what villian does on the turn. If he bets on any non J or 5 heart, we get it in. If he bets on any non-club T or 6 we get it in. If he checks to us on those cards, we probably jam unless you have reason to think a smaller bet or checkback is best. That's a good plan to start for playing the turn. It gets trickier on other cards vs a wide range like villian has here.
Agree with CustomSuited here. Use your position to your advantage. As he's not potting you don't even need to hit that many turns to make your play more profitable than folding. You hit 8nut-outs+8hearts (that are not straights at the same time) which make your hand better.
I recommend running the math on calling here. He is probably shoving 80% or has a check-call rang on scare cards. Determine on the flop, on what action and on which cards you act with a shove/c-behind or a fold.
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