Theory: Where can I find info on how often, i.e., I'll flop a straight(draw) with a Rundown?
Posted by KingBali8
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KingBali8
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High Stakes
Theory: Where can I find info on how often, i.e., I'll flop a straight(draw) with a Rundown?
Hopefully I worded myself right and you guys get what I'm asking for. Thanks in advance!
I find a lot of poker decisions are player dependent (even against the best of the best), but doesn't game theory revolve around knowing at least the basic probabilities before skill/choice comes into play? Anyway, that's what I'm doing now, even if it's not called "Game Theory".
I can only use a holdem example - but doesn't (preflop) game theory mean removing all player dependant strategy and playing Q7o - the computer hand - and folding EVERYthing less than 50% equity...? I want to do get a good idea of how often my opponent will hit straight draws/straights/2pairs flushes, etc. with his range (and to get this idea they are playing 50% of their preflop hands, all the way to 99%)
In omaha, you are likely for a straight to be the winner by the river about 11% of the time if everybody is playing 4 random cards and checking it down to the river source: https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/
But we are not playing, for example, J223 unsuited - a hand which is going to make much less straights with than say JT98.
My same question applies for flushes and playing suited and double suited hands (I assume almost all players play ANY double suited hands, even as crummy as 2239ds - so I could be wrong, but I would just round up the number to 100% of the double suited range that I'm constructing for my imaginary villian to play).
Where can I get info of how often I'll make a straight, a straight draw, a flush draw, trips, etc. ?
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Re your specific questions JT98-7654 flop a straight 5% a 13+ wrap 18% and 2pr+oe 12%; of that 35%, ~13% is on rainbow board, ~20% is on suited board, ~ 2% is on monotone.
DS hands flop a flush on unpaired board 2%, a fd 20%; with 13% no bdfd and 7% bdfd. I forget the rest of the bdfd %s will look and post them if asked.
Also a good one to know, given a non-A-high monotone flop if we have a flush a specific opponent was dealt the nf ~4% of the time; people's pf ranges get this around 8%-9%. So in a 3w pot w 2nf, opponents are roughly 15%-20% to have flopped it before there is action. Clearly the post-flop action is, uh, important. But it's also good to have a starting point if you are weighting opponent actions.
Incidentally they don't have the naked ace enough to have triple barreling pot exclusively nf+naked ace to be balanced. That exact spot is a fold, usually on the turn; most people barreling there understand this by now though, I think, both re range building and sizing.
This stuff gets a little complex when you extend through turn-river for completion frequencies, a little more when you consider ranges and ask how often non-nut stuff will be good, and a lot complex when you do both together.
I can answer additional specific questions on flop distribution given hand and hand distribution given flop stuff if people have them.
Props for giving detailed answers here , just so I fully understand your saying that opponents wont be barrelling the NF bare blocker frequently enough to make calling potsize bets without the NF profitable, I mean 3 way that makes sense .... ways around it as the aggressor ... I tend to find other bluffs for 2 streets on monotone , obviously the blocker for 3 and my cbet strategy on a monotone is like 35-40% potsize OTF , to include a wider value range believing it increases the ev of my strat OTF , keeps opponents calling wider futhering my options with flushes ,nutflushes and blocker bluffs. Thoughts on that Tom ? thanks in advance.
another useful one, on a paired board, specific player was dealt trips 15% and full house 2-3%; obviously this is weighted upward for broadway cards and down for wheel cards for most ranges. If we have trips it cuts opponent trips frequencies roughly in half.
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