AAxx, 4bet and get in on flop when most likely getting 3way
Posted by stoko
Posted by
stoko
posted in
Low Stakes
AAxx, 4bet and get in on flop when most likely getting 3way
BN: $25.78
SB: $44.13
BB: $12.64
UTG: $27.24 (Hero)
HJ: $47.45
CO: $27.08
SB: $44.13
BB: $12.64
UTG: $27.24 (Hero)
HJ: $47.45
CO: $27.08
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
K
3
Hero raises to $0.75, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.60, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $10.65, CO calls $8.05, SB calls $8.05
Hero raises to $0.75, HJ folds, CO raises to $2.60, BN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $10.65, CO calls $8.05, SB calls $8.05
I say this goes 3way like 85%+ of the time. Just std 4bet get in on any flop? CO 4bet high, like 13%+ and SB is a fish.
Flop
($32.95)
Q
Q
2
(3 Players)
SB checks
So just jam now..?
New to PLO, trying to transsion not going that great and playing zplo25.
Know HU if get in 1/3 can just 4bet get in on any flop without making any error.
But these spots comes up time to time, what about if i have a more raggy AAxx?
Loading 4 Comments...
You're getting a bit over 2 : 1 on a jam. If you pick up the pot more than 1/3 of the time, you have an immediate profit with any four cards.
The chance at least one of your two opponents has flopped trips-or-better is 40-45% (quick Odds Oracle estimate) depending on the exact ranges you give them. Therefore, 55-60% of the time you have flopped the best hand with very good equity against anything that calls. If nobody calls with worse than trips, your shove is profitable from fold equity alone (since you auto-profit if they call less than 2/3 of the time).
If they call with some way-behind hands, even better, but note that since they're getting 3 : 1 to call (needs 25% equity for a +EV call), you hope that they fold hands like Kh Jh Ts 9s (37%).
Finally, the 40-45% of the time that you get it in against trips-or-better, you have a little equity (2 outs to a boat + two dirty BD draws), so everything is not lost.
All in all, a shove will be nicely profitable.
I would keep in mind possibility of FD too.
How often the one hits and does it ever fold to the shove?
We're in the 65% region (+/- a couple of percentage points, depending on their BD draws) vs naked flush draws. Therefore we prefer that they fold (since they should call with ~35% equity getting 3 : 1, if they know what we have).
If they call with flush draws, it's fine. We make money when they call with them, but we make more if they fold them.
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