aaxx 3bet,flop cbet ip,turn t26t board,should I cbet the turn?
Posted by holdnuts
Posted by
holdnuts
posted in
Low Stakes
aaxx 3bet,flop cbet ip,turn t26t board,should I cbet the turn?
BN: $71.55
SB: $242.20
BB: $143.30 (Hero)
UTG: $93
HJ: $29
CO: $206.21
SB: $242.20
BB: $143.30 (Hero)
UTG: $93
HJ: $29
CO: $206.21
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
A
A
2
UTG raises to $3.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $17.50, UTG folds, BN folds, SB calls $14
UTG raises to $3.50, HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls $3.50, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $17.50, UTG folds, BN folds, SB calls $14
Flop
($43.00)
T
2
6
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $28,
SB calls $28
Turn
($99.00)
T
2
6
T
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks
River
($99.00)
T
2
6
T
8
(2 Players)
SB bets $95.20
sb is 50/30 fish,I have two questions:
1.Should I bet get in this flop with spr 3?I think I should bet bigger if I want to commit this flop,right?
2.Should I bet turn?what is the plan?
Loading 7 Comments...
Turn is indeed very nasty. Aint a lot of draws in his range, it is most like imo he made top pair on flop and fell in love. I would commit on this flop though obv, one of the best flops I think.
The flop is close. After betting if we decide to call a jam we're calling 97.5bb more to win 294bb, so need 33% to stack off.
Against 50%:(TT, 22, 66, T6, 789, 345, 62, T2) we have 28.4%
Against 50%:(TT, 22, 66, T6, T2, 62, 789, 345, t98, t87, t97) we have 32.5%
Against 50%:(TT, 22, 66, T6, 62, T2, 789, 345, t98, t87, t97, 679, 678, 698) we have 35.2%
It's obviously very close and player dependent on the flop.
Once villian calls the flop I think we can narrow his range down to weaker hands, something like;
50%:(345, KQJT, T997, T998, T887, T889, T778, T779, 6778, 6779, 6889, 6887, 6998, 6997, 6554, 6553, 6443, 6445, 6334, 6335) I know it looks like a lot but its only 1475 combos.
Against the range above we have 58% so it looks like a pretty easy shove. One thing to keep in mind is that the tighter villian is the worse all of these equity calculations become. On the turn for example if villians VPIP is 25% instead of 50% our equity shrinks from 58% right down to 36% as lots of the smaller rundown hands are discounted from his range preflop. Also if villian calls the flop instead of raising with more than half of his T97, T98 and T87 combos his range on the turn becomes stronger to the point where we should check behind.
Seems like the decision on whether or not to shove the turn depends on his flop calling range. If his raise c-bet in 3 bet pot % is high then I think we can call the flop when he jams and jam the turn when he checks.
Love to hear what ZenFish has to say.
What about bet small 35% ott? call his jam.He can still has over pair hand call down light.He can fold some hand ott if we jam.Let it go if he has t.
Villains preflop stats suggest that he goes to the flop quite wide. You didn't say much about postflop but I'll assume that he's gonna call quite a bit since you said he's a 'fish'. He's not folding any pair+gutter, overpairs and he's prolly not shoving wraps.
Vs a range of 30%:(T, T987, 987, 678, 679, 689, 643, 654, 653, KK, QQ)!(TT,22,T6,T2) we have 65%on the flop.. I didn't include 66 in the excluding range to make up for some slowplays. OTT we have 56%.
For me OTT it wouldn't be about if I am still ahead of his range but if there really is a need to bet.
- If we bet we rarely get called by worse (some KK,QQ, wraps I guess) and certainly won't fold out better. Betting the turn is good to prevent ourselves from getting bluffed. Protection isn't that important imo since there are only gutters and wraps out there and not a ton of them either. Betting like $30 here has some merit I'd say.
- By checking we don't lose much value since we probably don't wanna get the rest of our stacks in expecting to get called by worse all that often. Like I said, we don't need to protect that much from hands with good EQ but maybe from getting bluffed. If you have a good read on villains tendencies I'd prolly check the turn. If I wouldn't be confindent in my decision-making vs a shove or bet I'd prolly go for a small bet.
As played it's really tough. He prolly does raise most T6, T2 OTF and same with sets. If he calls the flop with T*** I'd expect a turnbet quite sometimes too. That decreases his value-range by quite a bit imo.
Also, if he rivered a straight, would he always shove for almost the whole pot here? I'd expect a middlish-sized bet at least some portion of the time.
Tough to say what's good here OTR since it's sooo read and feeling dependant. Therefore I'm not even gonna try. :)
I have to agree with suriname that check back OTT is not really bad value wise. I do think though that on the river i dont really see a call here. IMO people do call a lot with a T on the flop and when they hit trips on the turn they like to c/r.
OTR i dont think he would turn a hand with showdown value like KKxx hands into a bluff and the 8 hits his flop calling range a lot i would say. He could easily have combos like JT8x or 789T, 79TQ.
I do think that it kind of strange that he almost pots river which would lead me more towards calling. BUT you mentioned that SB is a fish so i think that his thought process on the river is more like : I have a good hand (boat or straight) so i bet big!
I only play PLO10 but big donkbets on the river are soooo often big made hands that I still call way too much.
I would play it the same way and fold river. I think I'd bet/get in flop against this player, like others mentioned his range otf is really wide and he's probably going to continue with weaker hands than he should
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