AA**ss OOP,deep
Posted by JimmyGlass
Posted by
JimmyGlass
posted in
Low Stakes
AA**ss OOP,deep
SB: $56.87
BB: $92.48 (Hero)
UTG: $34.70
HJ: $38.16
CO: $55.93
BN: $87.55
BB: $92.48 (Hero)
UTG: $34.70
HJ: $38.16
CO: $55.93
BN: $87.55
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
8
A
UTG calls $0.50, HJ folds, CO checks, BN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, CO folds
UTG calls $0.50, HJ folds, CO checks, BN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2.50, UTG calls $2.50, CO folds
Flop
($10.00)
Q
6
3
(3 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG checks,
BN bets $7,
Hero calls $7,
UTG folds
Turn
($24.00)
Q
6
3
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BN bets $20
BU - reg. 25\18 wtsd 30
cbet 80% (w\ 3way, more than in HU, which is weird) 51% aggr fact
turn 51% cbet; aggr 47%. cbet\fold 26%
what is turn play? I assume we don't have FE here.range looks like Q9, at worse TJQK w\spades
any thoughts?
Loading 8 Comments...
as long as you dont fold!
I like crai > cc and jam river when you improve because he can have some worse hands in his calling range and you got 28,37% vs worst case scenario qqxx, 99xx etc. and there is 64$ in the pot after youve paid his bet and 55$ left. gogo
This is a dry flop that we expect him to c-bet a lot. His range for getting to the turn would then be pretty wide. When he bets again, you certainly can't fold AA + NFD + gutshot.
There's 1 PSB behind if you call. It looks like an ok spot for a jam. You have some fold equity and decent equity versus his calling range, even if you don't know which of your non-nut outs are clean. But some of them will be, because Villain can't have everything. You don't want him to have two pair+, but you crush his draws.
Note that he raised a limper, so small sets and raggedy two pair combinations are less likely because his range should be high-card heavy and/or coordinated. And there are lots of draws he could have.
When you jam, you gain some fold equity + get to realize all your pot equity + won't have to worry about getting outplayed on the river. Check-raising a hand with good equity is also a good balancing play for your checking range. You can't always c/c or c/f, and you can't always wait for the nuts to c/r.
Firstly, I like your reasoning and I think it's sound advice.
You say that this is a dry flop (obv) and you expect villain to cbet a lot. I have been struggling with my cbet frequencies multiway. Especially if there is a fish (or multiple ones) in the pot I pretty much never cbet light since I always say to myself that he's gonna call with any piece anyways and if he really does fold once in a while there's still another player in the pot.
OOP I feel like that reasoning has some merit since we'll get called a lot and gonna be guessing on most turns but IP we certainly should put some pressure on our opponents, shouldnt we?
I imagine this hand being a good example for this whole concept. If you were BTN, would you cbet 100% here with the situation (stacks, players) being exactly the same? I'm curious b/c I think it will prolly show a profit but I would most likely just check back.
I don't c-bet 100% anywhere, but I expect BTN to have goodly amount of hands that are good enough to bet/stab. And we know from stats that he c-bets often.
When the turn brings so many possible draws, I think it's fair to assume he will be semibluffing some, once he's gotten heads-up vs a not-too-strong range. We check-called a dry flop, and we don't have all that much that can go all the way to the river.
Again, I agree on that. I'm still curious what is a reasonable cbetting frequency on this flop. Ofc we cbet Q*, KK, AA, and the wraps/sets but on this board there aren't many semistrong hands (like 2ndpair+gutter etc) so if we cbet a lot here we have to bet as a bluff (as far as one can say that) here. Meaning hands that have some weak backdoors or w/e. Is it bad to just bet a hand here that has little backdoorequity just because we assume we get enough folds here due to the dryness of this board?
I hope the question(s) is not to confusing. I am trying to figure out how to play my entire range in such spots.
I think Villain would be correct in firing a lot of his "PLO air" hands as bluffs when both opponents check to him on this board. One pair hands that can't improve to much and that are basically protection bets. Then check back some weak'ish hands that benefit from free cards, as well as the total air.
I agree with all said by Zenfish. Furthermore,in the last days I finished a simulation on dry flops like this, and with starting reasonables ranges Odds Oracle said that in river the most probable winning hands were two pair / one pair , when the board doesn't allows flushes or straights, in your case with the NFD and a gutshot I like a lot the check raise , cuase probably villain has one/two pair hand that is in his betfolding range.
fwiw if limper is at all aggro I like 3betting pre because I often think he'll be looking to limp jam with any suited rundown or big pair and that will reopen the betting an allow us to get it in pre against deep BTN.
as played I'm jamming the turn. If we x/c we're often going to be stuck trying to lead OOP on rivers that hit us and may allow good villains to play perfectly against our hand. But if we x/jam villain will occasionally make an equity mistake with his fold, and occasionally get it in with a worse hand with a worse draw. Plus this balances well with our value turn x/r'ing range so that people can't just snap fold everytime we x/r the turn.
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