Hey

I think cbet is way too big. This is about as dry as boards get, it really doesn't hit a MP opening range - call 3bet range very well, he'll have some Jx but he won't have much low straight draws or J4 type stuff. Betting a lot smaller (I'd go 1/3 pot) gives our bluff a good price vs a weak range and it gives our value (typically quite far ahead of his calling range) a wider calling range that its going to play well against.

You talk about how you were expecting a xr. Not sure why. He shouldn't have any xr range on this board here I don't think. He has almost no draws, not very much value, just makes no sense. We're never folding, if he can get us to fold an overpair with a xr here on a board as dry as this then we're in big trouble balance wise

I don't fold to a wheel card, as he has quite few draws and the draws he does have (maybe some A3, A5 kind of stuff with some big cards) we block a lot with the aces.

Never folding turn picking up nfd.

Actually curious as to what he had. Since you posted I assume you lost

here is what I think about flop play:
first, f the balance
decent valuecheck hand: whe Xback we are not lost after getting x/raised; have some implied odds if 3 comes and villain likes to attack weak ranges, keeping pot small with medium hand.

when we cb and face a raise is comes down to what you think about villain and whether he is able to x/r J$B$Bx here or AJ:(3,5) type of hand. I don't think b\f here is a disaster. Might be wrong.

I'm think this is a massively played dependent spot, little more info on villain would make this a lot easier. But given the situation my thinking is that firstly you 3b so villain knows you have a strong range likely with AA in it. The board is dry. Given your perceived range I think it wouldn't seem like a good spot to bluff for him + there are little draws he can have.

I agree with seacombe a smaller betsize given the dry board would be better. Also in terms of him having a J here, how likely is that really? even strong jack has decent chance of facing AA/KK here. Also you say I don't think villain would play JJ that way but do you really have the information on him to make that assumption? Personally I don't think I could fold AA here but maybe it is the right play..

I'm not sure if I prefer CB or check on the flop btw. Never folding to the 9d tho

I put him on 1 pair + gut shot as the most part of his range and I've seen that type of range x-raising or raising a lot in my 3-betted pots. Sometimes this happens with 2 pairs (shouldn't be likely, but can very well be at plo5) or even air as they put me on AA and think I put them on 2 pairs and folds. That's why I expect this a lot.

I don't like the check back at all, giving a free card to a rundown with a J doesn't seem good to me. It's a bigger pot, that was why I went for 70% c-bet on the flop to take it down right away.

I don't know what range poker juice gives for a call of a 3-bet, but it's probably way tighter than the average calls. A hand like 7643 never folds to a 3-bet and they are often opening.

I only had 23 hands of the villain, but if I remember correctly I thought he seemed wild. Think I had noticed a hand a little earlier.

If you think about the ranges then his range has more sets, two pairs and also more low rundowns that connect with this board. So this is a pretty good board to play back at you even with his semibluff hands with gutters, especially when he knows that you have tight 3-betting range.
Also think about it like this. Could you get 3 streets of value with this hand? Probably not unless board runs out perfectly. I mean any card lower than 7 brings a straight and any card higher may connect with J. So you need to start checking back at some point anyway.
So for those reasons I would sometimes start with a check back to pot control but obviously you cant go too wrong with a bet.
As played I`m probably bet/folding.

when he check raises the flop he has mostly 2 pair + or a hand that expects to have 40%+ equity against our exact hand, like pair + gutty or pair open ended, which is hoping you will fold but not really minding if you don't or ambivalent to you folding. you can't stack off given there is only $2.5 dead money and $10 or w/e to stack off (meaning you need on average like 44% equity). Nor can you peel with only 6 outs to improve + bd flush draw. just fold to flop c/r

WP.

Always 3-bet this kind of AAxx especially IP against MP.