AA: Top set IP vs straightening, busted flush draw river
Posted by devwil
Posted by
devwil
posted in
Low Stakes
AA: Top set IP vs straightening, busted flush draw river
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (5 Players)
BB: $82.29
UTG: $183.70
CO: $124.26 (Hero)
BN: $51.63
SB: $51.86
UTG: $183.70
CO: $124.26 (Hero)
BN: $51.63
SB: $51.86
BB is fairly loose passive over a small sample. High VPIP, if nothing else.
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is CO with
2
9
A
A
, , ,
Gonna open AA.
Flop
($7.50)
Q
A
8
, ,
Gonna bet for value and protection.
Turn
($20.50)
Q
A
8
2
, ,
Blank turn, ditto.
River
($61.50)
Q
A
8
2
J
dd missed, but KT now wins, as does T9.
How do you play this river when villain checks? When they bet?
How do you play this river when villain checks? When they bet?
Loading 4 Comments...
In GTO i guess that here the solution is mixed strategy between calling and folding against pot sized bet.
By betting full pot with a range of straights and nonstraights villain can make you indifferent for calling. This is if you check. I would be curious though if in GTO you should value-bet still small and fold vs raise, thats also possible.
Given the tendency of loose passive players, the main feature is that they dont bluff(raise enough but call too much)
If you lead you can easily play against a raise. However even if villain was at FD he can still have some value in his hand and can call 1/3 pot sized bet. And against a raise you can easily fold.
Uf you chiose to check, you can still fold to bet, but now the situation might be different. I think that against check even loose passive player will sometimes bet there with missed straight draws. Therefore by betting you might win more against his missed FD s without showdown value just by diacouraging him to bluff his GTO share. So by leading we can make hin underbluff even more and benefit by that. This combined with the chance that he has some kind of showdown value (like two pairs) leading is in my opinion line for higher EV.
Potting the turn seems a bit strange to me when you are significantly blocking his continuing range. I'd go with 60-70% of the pot.
On the river we have a clear value bet if he checks to us. When he donks it's close but I'll call because we block 0 diamonds. Against certain opponents though, you probably have to fold.
I'm surprised you say that re: sizing on the turn. Here's how I see it:
Unblocking wrap/flush-draw combos and QQ/88 completely (edit: I guess my one 9 blocks 9TJ a little, but I have no diamonds and no KJT), I think I need as much protection as I can get against the former and I can basically bet as big as I want against the latter for value, as my range doesn't exactly scream AA-heaviness (it's just a single-raised pot). Nothing else is especially likely to continue, and neither holding needs to be priced in with smaller sizing for me to make money in this spot. (Indeed, I want to give the high-equity draws the worst price I can, and I have little reason to be cute about it.)
QQ/88 will sometimes raise on the flop, especially QQ.
That said, his range on turn is weighed more towards draws and you're correct that you don't block them much. But most draws don't have a good equity anyway -- turn is almost a complete blank and the best draws he can have are combo draws like 9 card wrap + FD. And some of this would have X/R'ed on flop as well.
This leaves him with lots of weaker draws, and while charging his draws is usually important in PLO, I don't think you have a good reason to pot here. His equity vs. you on the turn should be 20-25% in most cases, sometimes far less. You don't want to pot away and fold those hands out.
On the other hand, if you have QQ instead of AA with the same side cards, potting here will make a lot of sense.
In other words, you don't need to worry too much about balancing your range and just picking a single bet sizing on the turn. It's completely fine to bet different sizings with different hands, and you can still balance those ranges if you want. But poker is not about balancing your ranges, it's just about maximising your EV.
-- midori
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