Board texture and sidecards matter. And both with high and low SPR there are flops where shoving is +EV, but betting smaller might be better.

Extreme example flop: 2s 2h 2d

Let's say Villains 3B/call range is $3b10i!AA (PJ 10% range, excluding AA). Doing an OO sim we find there's a 1% chance he has a 2. Now you can stack off at some very high SPR's before that becomes a losing play (compared to check-folding).

But that doesn't mean potting and stacking off will make much money beyond your 99% equity in the pot. Because Villain won't give you much action. A better strategy on this board, both with high and low SPR, would be to make a very small bet with your whole range.

Now your air (AKQJ$ds type hands) gets to bluff cheaply, and there is nothing Villain can do to prevent that. He will fold a lot, and call with overpairs and hope you don't bet again. On the turn you do just that, giving up with some bluffs and continuing with others. And again on the river.

GTO-wise, your best sizing scheme for a nuts/air vs bluffcatcher scenario is to bet the same fraction of pot on every street, using a size that sets up a final shove on the river (stacks allowing). And using the corresponding amount of bluffs on every street.

However, you probably don't have many bluffs in your 4B range. If you don't, betting smaller than the GTO size to induce action (exploitative play) is probably better. 

True...I should specify more common flops such as BSSr or BSSfd
like in these flops with a SPR of around 2-3 im not too how is should attack these cases
Their range probably consists of a lot of rundown hands, 4567-TJQK, one gappers which they probably hit a pair on me so they probably on avg have around 57% against my AAXXss or AAXXds which doesn't hit much

how should i play them if I only end up having dry As possibly only bdfd w/ around 2-3SPR?

Flopshove EV Training Drill: 

- Pick a specific flop you are unsure of (say, Kh Th 2s)
- Pick a specific AA hand (say, AsAc8s2c)
- Pick a Villain range (say, 15%6h!AA)
- Assume Villain knows your jamming range (e.g. AA) and plays perfect jam/fold against it
- Use Odds Oracle to calculate the EV of jamming your actual hand for, say, SPR = 1, 2, 3, 4

Rinse and repeat for lots of flops and various AA hands. This sounds like a bit of work (and it is), but you can do it quickly with an Odds Oracle script. It's a lovely morning and I feel happy, and I want you to feel happy too, so I'll share mine:

The EV-flopshove Script

EV-flopshove.csv

I lifted this from an article by Dan Hutchings (the Odds Oracle guy) in 2+2 Magazine (not available on 2+2 anymore, so no link). Here's how to set up a simulation:

- Open the script in Wordpad or Notepad and edit it there
- Ignore anything but the last line
- The last line looks like this:

,KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,1.2195

Which are the variables:

#BOARD#,#HERO_HAND#,#PERCEIVED_HERO_RANGE#,#VILLAIN_RANGE#,#BET_SIZE_TO_POT_RATIO#

Change the last line to set up whatever flop stackoff scenario you want (change board, hand, ranges, and SPR, but don't touch the commas). The script calculates the EV of stacking off with your actual hand on the given flop, assuming Villain is aware of your stackoff range, and that he plays a perfect jam/fold strategy against it with his range, with the given SPR. 

I like to look at the EV of specific hands in my range, but if you want only the average EV for jamming your range, you can of course let your actual hand be the same as your range (i.e. use AA!AAA both for #HERO_HAND# and #PERCEIVED_HERO_RANGE#). Villain's strategy is to play perfect jam/fold against your range in either case.

Note that Odds Oracle macros work fine in the input. So if you want to put Villain on a 4B-calling range of $3b15i!AA (the PokerJuice 15% IP 3-bet), you can write that, if you have added the PJ macros to your OO.

Now save the file.

Running the script

We run the script with the given input to test it. Open "Tools" --> "Spreadsheet Processor", select the file as input, and set your convergence criteria. Like so:

I use 20,000 trials as a default when doing fairly accurate sims (and setting time limit to 3600 sec to ensure it will finish). This will take a few minutes. When the sim is done, you will have an output file in the same directory as your input. 

EV-flopshove-output-1.csv

Interpreting the results

Looking at the last line of the output file, we find the EV result at the end:

"",KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,1.2195,,20000,0.24206887499999435

The EV is expressed as multiples of the pot. We find that the EV of shoving AsAc8s2c on a KhTh2s board, against an opponent with a 15%6h!AA range (who assumes our range is AA!AAA and plays perfectly against it), with SPR 1.2195, is +0.242 x pot.

If the flop pot was $100, we then made 0.242($100) = $24.20. If it was $150, we made 0.242($150) = $36.30, and so on. 

For completeness, here are all the variables on the output line (but you only care about the result at the end):

"#QUERY#",#BOARD#,#HERO_HAND#,#PERCEIVED_HERO_RANGE#,#VILLAIN_RANGE#,#BET_SIZE_TO_POT_RATIO#,!ERRORS!,!TRIALS!,HERO_EXPECTATION_AS_POT_MULTIPLE

When you know the EV of shoving, you can think abut other betting lines. If EV (shove) > 0, you know there is at least one profitable option, but perhaps you can do better.

Disclaimer

I happily share the script, but I will not provide support for it. If you don't get it to run, you'll just have to figure it out. ;-)

NB! Use Wordpad or Notepad (or Gedit for the Linux folk) for viewing and editing the script. Doing it in Excel (which your computer will probably suggest when you open the file) will mess up the format in my experience. Treat it as a text file, and only make changes in the last line of the input file, and you should do fine.

For troubleshooting, see the official Odds Oracle documentation: PQL Spreadsheet (CSV) Format Documentation.

Why Odds Oracle Scripts rule

Forgot to mention this, but you can use scripts to do batches of calculations. To repeat the above calculation for SPR 1, 2, 3, 4 all at once, just add one line per calculation. 

So the bottom of your script should look like this with four input lines:

,KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,1.00
,KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,2.00
,KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,2.00
,KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,4.00

Running the script (10,000 trials for this run) produces one single output file, with four output lines at the bottom (EV at the end of each):

"",KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,1.00,,10000,0.29125
"",KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,2.00,,10000,0.09105
"",KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,3.00,,10000,-0.1641
"",KhTh2s,AsAc8s2c,AA!AAA,15%6h!AA,4.00,,10000,-0.34985

And now you have done four tedious calculations in one fell swoop, while sipping tea. ;-) If you are ambitious, you can add 100 lines, varying lots of flops, hands, ranges, and SPR's, then you collect the results in the morning. 

Importing the output file into Excel and plotting things like EV as a function of SPR is straightforward. 

Odds Oracle scripts rule, period.

Awesome stuff. thanks.

awesome! thx zenfish #yougainedafollower