AA** 3way 3bet, facing PSB-donk+call

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AA** 3way 3bet, facing PSB-donk+call

HJ: $13.43
CO: $32.23 (Hero)
BN: $10.79
SB: $16.85
BB: $47.56
Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 T A A
HJ raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $2.90, BN folds, SB calls $2.80, BB folds, HJ calls $2.05
Flop ($8.95) K 6 7 (3 Players)
SB bets $8.57, HJ raises to $10.53, and is all in, Hero folds

we need to nave around 20-22% taking into account SB have 7$left.

looks like marginal to me or calling is ok?


*sb 32\15 donk bet 14% big sample

HJ 71\55 70hands

6 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 11 years, 8 months ago

Yup. This is a stack off. You have an overpair, you have a nut gutter, you have an excellent price. It's high variance, but it's (almost) certainly profitable.

Sam Lang 11 years, 8 months ago

The equity you have said being 20-22% looks wrong to me and intuitively this looks like a clear fold. I agree if we did need only 20-22% equity, this would be a stack off. How did you get this number? Lets have a look at the way I would analyse the situation. Please let me know if you think I have made any mistakes... I don't do this sort of calculation very often! 

The pot is 8.95 currently. The 3way main pot will be the current pot size plus 3 times what the hijack has left, 8.95 +(3*10.53) and we will be risking 10.53$ to compete for this pot. This means that 3way we need equity of 10.53/(8.95+(3*10.53)) which comes to just under 26% equity in the 3way pot. 

The heads up pot will be the small blinds stack minus the hijacks stack as we have them both covered, which comes to 3.42$, so for the side pot we will be risking a further 3.42$ and will want to have greater than 50% equity to break even. 

3way things are a bit more complex and we could do a simulation if we knew both of their ranges and try and figure out the exact equity we have, but lets just take a more simple approach. I think we are almost always an equity dog versus the small blinds range in the heads up pot, given we are flipping or a dog versus draws, a dog versus most pair+draws and a massive dog to made hands. To make up for this equity disadvantage, we need to have greater than 26% equity in the 3way pot, which, given the board texture, where it is very likely at least one player has a strong draw, either a flush draw or a straight draw, and given we are drawing fairly slim if either player has a made hand better than our over pair, seems incredibly optimistic to me. 



Tom Coldwell 11 years, 8 months ago
I must admit, I took his math at face value and didn't check. You are correct though making this closer. Still think we might have to stack off though, especially given SB probably doesn't donk strong here (more likely to check/jam I think... maybe) and we hold backdoor nut diamonds which are worth a few percent of equity.


jonna102 11 years, 8 months ago

Looks good, and I think you're right.  I read the situation too quickly at first, somehow thought it was just a 2-way all-in.  3-way it's probably a slightly losing play to stack off, but still a pretty clear fold.  Thx for sharing.

Mynttis 11 years, 7 months ago

"*sb 32\15 donk bet 14% big sample"

14% donk bet is strong, it's 3 way pot and because villain is donk potting it's even stronger. This is fold.


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