[5z] Loose BU isolation, Turn + River decisions
Posted by Kerith
Posted by
Kerith
posted in
Low Stakes
[5z] Loose BU isolation, Turn + River decisions
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $5.34 (Hero)
SB: $8.94
BB: $17.86
UTG: $5.56
MP: $11.93
CO: $4.96
SB: $8.94
BB: $17.86
UTG: $5.56
MP: $11.93
CO: $4.96
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BN with
Q
9
A
7
, , , ,
I don't have too many hands on V but he does not seem to be a habitual limper and in fact raised more than one third (6/16) of his COs in the hands I played with him, probably removing the strongest hands. While my hand is not great I would think it is doing just fine equity wise and more importantly that he will often make weak hands that can be bluffed if need be.
Flop
($0.51)
8
A
Q
, ,
I think you can make an argument for betting bigger on this flop since I doubt he will fold any pair+gutshot (or better) and he should have a lot of them. Since I have the Ac I think any raise from him would be a set (mostly 8s but he might just limp/call bad Qs) and I plan to fold to it.
Turn
($1.11)
8
A
Q
7
,
I don't think checking back can be that bad but there is an argument for betting as well. The hands that we are still ahead of should outnumber the flushes by quite a bit since, unless he XC Flop with 5532cc, the structure of the flush hands should be similar to those that are still drawing to a straight execept there are of course a lot less clubs then non-clubs. In hindsight I would like a 50-60%ps value bet. I would not bluff the river because I think people are not folding enough.
River
($1.11)
8
A
Q
7
5
The good thing is I doubt he value bets 88 or 96 like this. His value should be high flushes since he probably suspects that I would bet the turn with the nutflush. Every missed hand could be a candidate to bluff with in his eyes and if that is the case there are just so many hands he could do this with because he thinks I give up too much.
What do you think?
Loading 7 Comments...
fold he's got the flush
Bet a little bit bigger otf. Dont make valuebets with top two on a flushy board, just check behind when you dont fancy bluffing twice with a nut flush blocker. You have Ac so this pretty good spot to bet three times on a runouts like this one and make it look like you have nut flush. As played just fold he probably has the flush.
Thanks for you replies, guys. Do you think he will pot any flush? Or is it more that you think he will only pot the King high and maybe the Queen high flush but never (rarely) bluff?
dunno i've never played with him
Qc is on the board, Ac is in your hand so in this case he probably valuebets K high and J high flushes.
PEF: I really like to isolate him pre-flop. I agree with you, your hand isn't huge, but it's enough to do that.
F: I would like to see you betting bigger. The reason is because that type of player or will call or will fold, so the size doesn't matter much. Honestly, against him I would play exploitable. I would bet bigger for value and I would bet a little small per bluff. So in this case I would bet $0.45.
T: I play PLO10, and a tendency of the field is call call and fold. But, I don't know how it's work on PLO5. But I like the x and fold OTR brick facing a bet or bet bigger, like 85% and bet something like 65% OTR. The Ac allows both!
R: I don't think he has 88 or 96 a lot on this range. The reason is because he seems to be a Fish Passive. This type of player has a very wide range of call and a very strong range of bet. In other words, he will never fold a flushdraw, but a set, he probably DonkBet POT OTF or check-raise. So when he bets POT OTR the most part of the time is a flush and he won't give up if you raise.
Overall, I would play like you pre-flop and would bet bigger otf. Bet 85% OTT and 65% OTR.
OR Like you OTT and fold river.
Ty! I hope you like my analysis!
@texasflood2: Thanks, I do like your analysis.
In general I have gone away from bluffing with the nutflush blocker too much lately since I got called a lot (even by non-flush hands) from passive players. It makes total sense to do it but if people are not willing to fold we should just bluff them less, right?
On the river I think he just has so many potential bluffs and so few value hands (since he probably only bets high flushes for value) that, combined with his weird sizing, I think he is just trying to get me off a hand often enough to profitable call. If the flop had less straight draws I would probably agree with you guys and fold though.
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