[5z] Loose BU isolation, Turn + River decisions
Posted by Kerith
Posted by Kerith posted in Low Stakes
[5z] Loose BU isolation, Turn + River decisions
Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players)
BN: $5.34 (Hero)
SB: $8.94
BB: $17.86
UTG: $5.56
MP: $11.93
CO: $4.96
SB: $8.94
BB: $17.86
UTG: $5.56
MP: $11.93
CO: $4.96
Preflop
($0.07)
Hero is BN with
Q
9
A
7
, , , ,
I don't have too many hands on V but he does not seem to be a habitual limper and in fact raised more than one third (6/16) of his COs in the hands I played with him, probably removing the strongest hands. While my hand is not great I would think it is doing just fine equity wise and more importantly that he will often make weak hands that can be bluffed if need be.
Flop
($0.51)
8
A
Q
, ,
I think you can make an argument for betting bigger on this flop since I doubt he will fold any pair+gutshot (or better) and he should have a lot of them. Since I have the Ac I think any raise from him would be a set (mostly 8s but he might just limp/call bad Qs) and I plan to fold to it.
Turn
($1.11)
8
A
Q
7
,
I don't think checking back can be that bad but there is an argument for betting as well. The hands that we are still ahead of should outnumber the flushes by quite a bit since, unless he XC Flop with 5532cc, the structure of the flush hands should be similar to those that are still drawing to a straight execept there are of course a lot less clubs then non-clubs. In hindsight I would like a 50-60%ps value bet. I would not bluff the river because I think people are not folding enough.
River
($1.11)
8
A
Q
7
5
The good thing is I doubt he value bets 88 or 96 like this. His value should be high flushes since he probably suspects that I would bet the turn with the nutflush. Every missed hand could be a candidate to bluff with in his eyes and if that is the case there are just so many hands he could do this with because he thinks I give up too much.
What do you think?
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