5/10 Live 9 handed game - Good or Bad move
Posted by brummell
Posted by
brummell
posted in
High Stakes
5/10 Live 9 handed game - Good or Bad move
Ive been playing 5/10 live 9 handed lately and the other day i had a spot were im not sure if my play was optimal.
Im sitting on a 2600 stack and i raise from the dealer with AKJ2 double suited clubs and spades i raise preflop to 50 and get 6 callers; flop comes 9h Ks 3h - they all check back to me and i opt to check to give myself a free card as these players really like to check raise. Turn comes a very good card making the board 9h Ks 3h 4s giving me a backdoor nut flush and gutshot. Big blind who is a very loose player bets 200 into the pot and a middle player calls i reraise to 600 and he reraises all in 2200......and i fold. Do you think my reraise to 600 was a mistake? i was trying to raise my hands value on the pot thinking i had alot of odds to improve my hand for the river considering small two pairs or draws might be in his range and thinking i could bluff alot of rivers pretending i had a set.
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i would want a read that $200 into ~$300 pot means draw/medium-weak hand and that he will let us realize our eq by just calling the times we are behind. obv ppl will ship sets and prob top2 vs ur sizing but if he ships weaker 2p or even a combo draw then we are setting ourselves up to make a mistake by raising. without a read on the bet size i doubt we are pushing eq vs his range even tho we increase our implied odds (maybe) if we hit our flush or str8. if the caller comes along then thats good too obv, but we cant really vbet any rivers unimproved nor would we wanna bluff the river (assuming avg live opposition) so i think the cons of a raise outweigh the pros.
vs a range of K9+ we have 27,3% eq. to gii we need 32,6% equity unless i misread the stacks or made a mistake. if there is a chance that he is capable of shipping with 1pair+draw or a OE/wrap+fd or the weaker 2 pairs (add all K3+ but no 1pair+draw or naked draws and we are breaking even on a call) then it becomes a close but clear call.
The important thing to understand is that when the hand plays out like it did, it's a HUGE disaster for you because you lose a big bet and don't realize your equity. I would be quite happy to call and play the river in position.
Just don't see any value in the turn raise. Most of what they're folding you're ahead of and have good enough visibility. You're just value cutting yourself
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