(.5/1) 6 max: pretty big mistake in deep pot
Posted by C4boxylic
Posted by C4boxylic posted in Low Stakes
(.5/1) 6 max: pretty big mistake in deep pot
BN: 127.34
SB: 215.79
BB: 205.15 (Hero)
UTG: 108.69
HJ: 100
UTG folds, CO raises to 3, BN calls 3, SB calls 2.50, Hero raises to 15, CO calls 12, BN calls 12, SB calls 12
SB is an aggressive regular who i have not played a lot of hands with. I've never seen him making any mistakes really. No numbers to offer since i don't have a HUD.
Preflop, maybe it was a mistake to 3bet here, considering my relative position? BU is very loose passive, ideal situation is to get in a HU pot vs him.
I can say fairly confidently when he pots the flop that his range is super strong, especially with 3 people behind him to act and W/ stack sizes what they are. I think a reasonable range looks like 2p+ w/ flush/straight redraw, and the made straight. W/ that in mind i just called. If i was shallower i'm just getting it in on the flop.
When the turn bricks and he goes all-in, i'm getting like 2.5/1 on a call, (131 to win 309.)
I plugged in some different hands to see what my equity is on the turn against what i think he plays this way:
nut straight w/ no redraws: 27%
Set no redraws: 30%
Set + flush redraw: 23%
Straight+ flush redraw: 26%
avg: 26.5% equity
131/309= .424
EV: (.26 x 309) + (.74 x -131)= -16.6
So what could I have done differently? I think that maybe i should have raised the flop, at which point i was closer to a flip. Even if he doesnt gii, it sets me up to have much better odds when the turn bricks. This logic may be flawed.
Any thoughts on any of this? I may have made mistakes in my math also.
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