he rarely insta potting nuts (KK,KT). Not much K8** in 3b range.
vs AA+OE\GS - you're ahead.

agaisnt this AA**,AA67,AAKQ,KT,KQJ,AAQJ -we're 43% otf.

my default otf would be raise\GII.

vs a 8% 3b range ($3b8o) we have about 52% equity vs his range otf. if he cbets 100%, and only stacks off with K+:J9+,T+:AJ+,QJ then well net about $10 on a shove. add all AA to his stack off range and our shove EV drops to about $6 (same if its AK+).

most ppl dont cbet 100% here, so lets give him any T+/gutter+(T+,J9+,QJ). still about +$9 on a shove otf if he stacks off with: K+:J9+,(K,T):AJ+,QJ,AA:(Q,J)

if we keep the cb range the same, but he stacks off with K+,T:J9+,QJ the EV of a shove otf ~$4.

so shoving flop is def an option, and the avg hand he bet folds will still have about 37% eq vs us.

calling is tricky even ip since we will almost have enough eq to continue on Q/J even non clubs, and even three of the low cards arent great.

anyway, vs this range ott: K+,J9+ which is fairly standard (will include stuff like AQ65 and 765 too) we have 50% eq. we need 40%ish obv to gii (with no feq) so folding just bc he writes in the chat? i dunno, would have to be a hell of a read and one that id want to have confirmed several times like: "writes in the chat whenever he has top set".

i get what u mean tho, there is something "honest" about talking after you bet which at least for me in my holdem days meant "theyre not bluffing" so i should fold my weak hand. but plo is a little more about equity than soulreads (at least ott) so if he has AAJ he knows that shoving is the right play and hes committed so it doesnt matter what you do so he might as well mess with u a little bit in the chat.

+1 for gii on the flop. You rarely improve with turn cards, you just hope that he doesn't improve. And you don't really know which cards improve him and which don't, and as he will make mostly correct bets (value, semibluffs with equity) you'll have a hard time on the turn.

Gii on the flop won't make you rich but it seems +EV following spassewr's analysis.

ohgodwhy: (great nick btw)

Yes, a tight 3b range will almost always contain A/K/T/9 if it contains QJ.

Also, if it doesnt most ppl wont fold a naked open ender w these stacks if theyve 3b it and then cb it (even tho perhaps they should).

How he plays Kx/AA+gutter (by checking or betting) is the most important factor and what will determine how profitable if profitable at all our shove will be. So how he plays naked QJ is almost irrelevant.

Vs some1 who doesnt cb air, checks pair+gutter, but doesnt fold Kx+ after betting a shove may actually be slightly -EV. But we obv cant make all those assumptions.