50PLO Top Set River Decision
Posted by TJ Serdar
Posted by
TJ Serdar
posted in
Low Stakes
50PLO Top Set River Decision
Eff stacks 50.00
Hero raises KdKc8d6d to 1.50 UTG, 2 folds, BTN (38/5 14% 3b) min 3bets to 2.50, sb folds, Villain flats BB, I call
Flop KhJd4s(7.75)
Villain checks, I check, BTN checks
Tu 5s(7.75)
Villain leads 6.00, I raise 20.00, BTN folds, Villain calls
River 8s(47.75)
Villain (28.25) checks, Hero?
This might be an obvious check back, but I'm curious how often you expect to be beat here on the river? I'd expect most of his XsYs combos to lead shove the river along with some QT9 type bluffs, so I'd think it's more likely he either has 67** which I block, or some 2pr/set combos with 2pr/sets>>>>67>>flush.
My range doesn't seem that air heavy, like the flop wrap is all that I could potentially be bluffing with. This guy is also a pretty tough and reader and definitely makes some razor thin hero calls.
Thoughts?
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When he checks to you, that probably rules out some of his draws, but I think he can still have hit this card. However, it's a pretty bad card for the rest of his range (made hands and bluff-catchers). I therefore would expect you to get a lot of folds if you bet it from the portions of his range which you want putting money in. You have a read on him, so if you think he'll call like $10 with a bad two pair or AA** to catch QJ9, then MAYBE you could bet, but I think it's gonna be value-cutting yourself way too frequently. I'd prefer to just show it down here, although the value-bet is certainly something I consider before I click "check."
I am pretty convinced he would have shoved here if he had it....
I would check back river not because I would be affraid that he was better but :
(a) to see his holdings and to know better my opponent (if I bet small - he could easily fold)
(b) cause I honestly think there is (almost) no value here ( broadway cards + J is opponent's possible hand as I see it)
I would have flatted his 3B like you did. But on the flop I'm not giving any free card to any of our opponents. Seeing as there might be a str draw I'd lead out on the flop. If he raises our bet I'd flat his call. We only need about 73% equity to call about 90% of the turns. Also I just think if he has any type of hand I want him to put money in the board to continue.
The 5s turn is a blank IMO. I don't see our opponent holding a hand such as A-6-7-8 and calling our flop bet. But since the way the hand was played, I'm actually concerned with the turn play. The flop was checked, giving everyone a free card. A monster draw on the turn scares me. Villain leads out from OOP and calls your 3 bet. In my head I'm putting him on middle or bottom set (unlikely), A-Q-10-9, Axxxss type hand. Looking for the wrap or that flush draw.
The river brings a terrible card. I'm putting this villain with an Axxx type hand.. Given that he lead out and called our 3 bet, this is a card I would simply check on. And go to showdown with. I don't want to risk betting into his check and getting raised on a hand we can't continue on. Therefore I like our showdown value we had on the flop by checking. I just don't like the idea of facing a raise on this river hand and losing our value. Also, we lost the player from the BTN we were initially concerned about. We're now facing aggression from someone OOP on the turn.
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