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$50PLO - river decision in 3b pot

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$50PLO - river decision in 3b pot

BN: $59.68 (Hero)
SB: $61.24
BB: $13.15
UTG: $109.67
HJ: $54
CO: $12.33
V plays 26 19 7, River Aggr 6, Agg Freq 19. Have seen him doing fishy stuff like 3b 679T mon IP, but other than that not going to much out of line.
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A 2 2
HJ raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $6, SB folds, BB folds, HJ calls $4.25
Flop ($12.75) K 5 7 (3 Players)
HJ checks, Hero bets $8, HJ calls $8
Turn ($28.75) K (3 Players)
HJ checks, Hero checks
River ($28.75) 4 (3 Players)
HJ bets $21.56
Hero ?

3 Comments

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Caantpayrent 12 years ago
Hey, so it comes down to whether or not he bluffs at this enough to make this a profitable call, i say that because, your hand as far as i know has no value anymore, its only good for catching a bluff..theres a possible straight, and the board is paired, your only holding AA so....his HJ raise doesnt really mean anything, could of been stealing could of been value...
flop:
well he doesn't have any sets, there's no way hes check calling a set on the flop, but he could be check/calling a king or a 2 or 3 card straight, when the K hits the turn him checking doesnt mean anything to me, he could be check raising, he could be checking cause he has nothing, so the 4 hits completes a few straights and he leads leads for $21, so he either has it or he doesn't, this will be a profitable call against some and a instant fold against others, you just gotta know how often they would do this....i should say that with out any reads id be more inclined to fold, as him floating the flop was probably unlikely....

hope this helped, if you liked what i said please heart it, and let me know where i went wrong if not... :)
Sightblinder 12 years ago
You shoudn't auto-discard sets on this flop. We have no info regarding hero's playstyle, but there is alot of regulars whom I'd feel comfortable check/calling set one street here if I feel they are barreling to much on the turn.

Anyhoo, unless you have the habbit of playing tricky against regulars you're at the top of your range in this spot, so by folding this hand you're bascily always folding river (again, unless you're checking behind trip kings sometime), so I call is tempting. Not much that missed by the river though :D
Tom Coldwell 12 years ago
Without further info, this is a fold imo. His flop calling range should include some pairs, some draws and the odd slowplay (unlikely he'll float w/ total garbage OOP). A lot of that range improved past us on the turn or river, and more than that, improved to strong, value-betable hands. Therefore, I think this is a decently easy fold without more to go on.

As for the idea that we might get exploited 'cas this is the top of our range, that can be dealt with once we know more about villain. If we know he'll always stab river when we check turns, then we can start calling more and slowplaying on the turn more (although I think we should have the odd slowplay here anyways). That said, trying to avoid being exploited in these games is usually dumb without a read 'cas most villains simply aren't good enough/thinking enough to do something like that.

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