Hey,

I would probably shove the turn with this SPR. I dont see many slowplays in his range that would like to check this very drawy turn - only candidates i am thinkig about are AK55 with nut fd and similiar hands. And your hand would like to see a fold basically everytime and if money goes in I think that you should have enough equity with your fold equity to make this bet profitable.

Another question is if you can make more money by checking in position. But with no real showdown value its not gonna be easy on the river because you cant really bluff that well and on cards you hit its very hard to get value. So I would take my fold equity on the turn against hands like J998, AJTx etc.. that might be giving up.

One question: Would your decision be different on Qh having the nut flushdraw instead of T hi flushdraw and Why? Instinctively is always better to be shoving with nut FD especially blocking all the possible trapping hands. But with no showdown value, getting any fold on the turn is good especially in these low SPR spots where fold equity is where the money are coming from.

fold the flop all you have is a non nut gutshot

Logic behind chking back turn is presumably that his chking range is super polar and the value region mostly contains hands that dominate your flush draw? I think it might be OKish under certain conditions, but in a vacuum feels potentially a little reg/reg over respect-y, the straightforward line has very high EV vs any reasonable OOP strategy since SPR is low enough that the equity threshold for the value region of OOPs range is pretty high, meaning even if he plays the spot "correctly" he'll still be folding pretty often vs bet. Solvers chk/continue way more often than population (even a population of good+ players) but even if you assume hes playing the spot perfectly, I think you get to shove here. The adjustment to someone chking a "better" range is prob to have two betsizes rather than to stop going after their chks with multi-faceted semibluffs, I think.

River is an odd spot - feels like if hes chking a balanced range this hand isnt a great bluff candidate and if hes chking an unbalanced range this hand has okish showdown value. Also maybe feels like a lot of his turn give-ups with marginal showdown value also happen to unblock your draws, so he could actually get to defend reasonably effectively vs riv bet even if his turn chking range were unbalanced and weak.

A lot to read into this spot... but intuitively I would just check it down , happy to realize my EQ for just one small bet and avoid potentially getting stacks in with very poor EQ - as soon as our FD is no good we drop below 20% OTT.

No idea how gavz is approaching this spot but it’s pretty easy for him to have a huge hand here that doesn’t mind giving a free card with the chance of inducing a stabb . It’s not like that turn really helps the BU’s range all that much.

River then basically a leveling thing, he is probably having still quite a few solid bluff catchers in his range since there is less value in betting against a range that is air, Jx and the occasional 2x+

river seems like a bad card to bluff. draws missed, the bottom card pairing makes it an appealing hero spot with KK or w/e, and we shouldn't have three of a kind or a boat very often. perhaps this is level 2 (or 20) thinking, it's such a bad spot to bluff villain will never put us on a bluff?

To those who advocate a check on this river, can you provide examples of hands that you would believe would make appropriate bluffs as played?

I tend to agree with the line about betting turn to maximise fold equity, interesting to see what your two sizing strategy on this turn would look like Richard.

I am correct to assume that hero can check behind some turns with KQ92, KQT2, QT92? And that our value range is only 2x+ that reached this river?

This maybe is a flop r/f but I'm not sure. Otherwise I think it all looks good with turn check and river sizing. I mean we gotta bluff something and this hand is a rare combo plus it had so much equity so seems like one of our best candidates

bluffing the river seems like a horrible runout to bluff on, but I think your history with the villain will give you the right answer. How loose is he 3 betting you out of position here? Is the villain ever folding KQ? your hand looks so bluffy, but if you have tons of history of calling the flop with top and bottom pair and bottom two pair I can see justifying a river bluff as long as your checking back the turn like you did in this spot, but if youre betting the turns with those hands I probably give up.

I do like the line a lot, but only if Villain knows we do / it is common to value bet at least TP on the river.

Heros preflop perceived range contains a lot of xxyy-, high / middling cards and less JJ+ combos. Hero will call the flop bet with a lot of bd-draws. ~40% of the time Hero will improve to 2-pair or better(12%), FD(25%) or Wrap(1,3%) on the turn.

Villain probably expect Hero to stab here often with his draw, air and made hand range, so he can go for a x-raise (thin value / protection / bluff) with his TP/OP and draws, especially as the SPR is that low.

As Hero did x-back the flop he has a lot of hands with sd-value and less air in his range with whom he wants to get to showdown. As Villain didn't bet on the river he shouldn't have that much KK, AA (1 A Hero blocks) in his range. Therefor Villain has a hard time calling of the river bet, although Mr. do not rep that much sweets here.

Villain probably has to call with any A5+ here. In Heros shoes we probably have to bet at least all QK+ for value, so that we can bluff here.

I am curious about Mr. Sweets comments.

Checking behind turn you get value if he's giving up ( as here ) and in any of your river outs he could be attemping to bluff and still you could bluff raise on enough missed rivers.

So i like the check behind, these hands perform so bad IMO HU even in position that i would gladly open-fold vs aggressive blinds Preflop

The fact the he check-folds river indicates that oppo tends to give up too many of these spots so against such player... Well, then i see the action of hero and i cannot immagine a different play.

what u are betting turn if not this hand?
only value?

I’m definitely betting this turn if I’m floatinf this flop. Otherwise what are we doing here? The idea is to take the pot away and if we aren’t bluffing a card that gives us some two pairs and top sets, when are we trying to take this away? If we get check jammed on, that’s obviously not very much fun, but I don’t see any reason we can’t just bet smaller on the turn and size up more on lots of rivers.

As played on the turn, I’d check down the river or bet small, much more likely to bet small. Pot kinda polarizes you and you’ll probably get called just as often by a J high rundown type of hand for pot as you would half pot. Half pot gives you such a better price, so I think that’s the way to go.

Great spot! Love this post and comments!

bet turn anyone? seems obvious to me.