500 zoom, extremely draw heavy board, fold 3 pair on flop 100bb deep?
Posted by jimmyhat1000
Posted by jimmyhat1000 posted in Mid Stakes
500 zoom, extremely draw heavy board, fold 3 pair on flop 100bb deep?
SB: $636.49
BB: $473.36
UTG: $1155.06 (Hero)
HJ: $522.20
CO: $1371.08
Hero raises to $15, HJ calls $15, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $10
I have just started a new DB so no stats on villain nor do I recognize his screen name. I do have him marked as a regular so I assume he is at least semi competent.
Am I missing something with assigning his range or is this just a clear fold on the flop? I used to think that it was a pretty standard spot to call and get it in on blank turns but given the simulation below and how poor our raw equity actually is maybe we should just fold the flop?
Even being fairly generous and giving him all KKhh and QQhh combos we still only get to 40% equity on the flop.
Then if we assume the turn is one of the best cards in the deck that doesn't give us a full house, the 2c, we STILL only have 43% against the most generous range we can reasonably give him.
Some of the hands like A8, A7 with hearts I haven't included but they won't do much to improve our equity as he is free rolling us or flipping at worst. So is this a clear fold on the flop or have I missed some piece of the puzzle? Just doesn't seem like we do well on future streets at all.
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