50 plo weird spot with a weakish wrap
Posted by midori
Posted by midori posted in Low Stakes
50 plo weird spot with a weakish wrap
Alright, here's a hand I played a while ago. I will post my thoughts and question below the HH.
(If you wanted to PJ this yourself, you can copy the HH from the following URL and paste it into HJ)
http://www.evernote.com/shard/s136/sh/1fcd801f-7c78-4db1-a7bd-e33bcea26e22/99c1898f93d2c662804efea32874a9a2
Stacks:
Hero (UTG) €73.33 147bb
UTG+1 €78.48 157bb
CO €80.77 162bb
BTN €18 36bb
SB €180.78 362bb
BB €50 100bb
Pre-Flop: (€0.75, 6 players) ridomi is UTG Ad As 4s 5d
Hero raises to €1.75, 2 folds, BTN calls €1.75, SB calls €1.50, 1 fold
Flop: 2h Qc 3h (€5.75, 3 players)
SB bets €5, Hero calls €5, BTN goes all-in €16.25, SB calls €11.25, Hero calls €11.25
Turn: 9c (€54.50, 3 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets €54.50, Hero goes all-in €55.33, SB calls €0.83
River: Jd (€165.16, 3 players, 2 all-in)
My in-game thoughts:
On flop I have a 12-card wrap, with very few nut outs (Ac, 6c, 6d, 6s). I have position though, so when SB donks into us I thought I had an easy flat. When BTN shoved for a bit more and SB just flatted that, I didn't put SB on a very strong hand because he would have just jammed with them. At this point I am getting about 20% on a call, so calling seem to be the only play.
On turn he jams again, which is a bit weird. First off, I am beating all his draws with my overpair. If I had a naked wrap, things would have been very different. Second, I didn't think he had many sets. I couldn't do the range analysis in-game, but this seemed like an easy all to me at this point.
Later thoughts:
It's worth noting that when SB leads into me and the short-stacked BTN, his range should be fairly strong. Against the range of Q3+, A54+, 2+:Ahh I am a slight dog (42%), and raising makes little sense with our actual hand w/o any heart. However, when he flats BTN's shove I think we can take out some hands from his range; he will probably stack off with Q3+, A54:hh, 654:hh, Q654 because my range shouldn't look very strong, and BTN's shove means little to him. Against this range I have 51% on flop, and 59% on turn.
What if he has some slowplayed sets on the turn? If we assume he slowplays QQ, our equity on turn drops to 42%. Still, not enough to consider folding. If we assume he slowplays QQ and 33, we still have 41%, and this is due to the fact that a tight SB range shouldn't have many 33 at all. Including Q3 doesn't change much; we still have 38% and have an easy call.
Question:
It just occurred to me though, that maybe we could stack off on the flop against SB's presumed decent-but-not-nutty range, and that can be a better play than peeling on flop and stacking off on good turns? My in-game plan was to dodge hearts (barring Ah, maybe) on the turn, but given that we are in a good shape against everything that is not 2p+ or wrap+FD, it might be possible that jamming flop can be more +EV than my actual plan.
What do you think?
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