$50 plo / Bottom Set

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$50 plo / Bottom Set

First hand in game. No reads. No HUD.

$50 effective stack. 4 players.

Hero UTG with Kc Ks 6c 6s

Hero raises to $1.75. Button, SB, and BB all call.

Flop: ($7.00)(4 players)   Ah 7c 6d

Chk, Chk, Hero bets $5.25. Button raises to $22.75. Sb folds. Bb raises all in for $48.25.

Hero????

I am pretty sure this is a fold, but maybe not? (Kind of why I am posting, hint, hint.)


15 Comments

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Imfish4u 11 years, 1 month ago

Without any specific reads I dont think that this should be a fold. Against a very tight player that never x/r any draws you could find a fold but against an unkown I think you should gii here. I think it shouldn be too hard to come up with his x/r range here.

I hope i did this right with pro pooker tools cuz i normally use a different program. So if we only give him made hands, which means any AAxx combo (very unlikely cuz he would 3bet from the BTN a lot),77xx and A7xx we have 45%!!!!

If we ad some big draws (89TJ. 5789) we still have around 46% but if you can take out a lot of AA combos because ppl would 3 bet with them IP than your equity goes up to 55%. Even though I gave him a pretty tight x/r range i do think you can gii here with some backdoor potential as well.

trondeez 11 years, 1 month ago

This is verse 2 players... not just one. Went btn raise, bb jam. The original raiser is never folding either.

HU I snap get it in.


Imfish4u 11 years, 1 month ago

Oh sorry, didnt see that! Its kind of confusion reading hands with this format.

In that case i think you are better of folding. You will be up against a bigger set vs2 ppl quite a lot of the time and if not one of the two will have a wrap so you are never gii as a big favorite even though it looks ugly folding flop might be best imo.

ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

Quick multiway sim (using PokerJuice range macros in Odds Oracle):

BTN flats $FI25 ! $3B6I
BB flats $FI25 ! $3B6O

There are some bad AA in both flatting ranges. We look at the tight, simple case where fold equity is zero and they both are raising sets and (mostly) nutty wraps with 13+ outs:

BTN: ($PJFI25 ! $pj3b6i) : (AA,77,66,T98,985)
CO: ($PJFI25 ! $pj3b6o) : (AA,77,66,T98,985)

We have 20.3% equity here. So you need some combination of fold equity and looser ranges to get it in good. It looks like a tall order. You c-bet 3-way with plenty of AA in your range, and they don't care.


lofigr 11 years, 1 month ago

I think its super easy cheap and explo fold meaning if somehow BN overplayed top2+ hand e.g. A785, then BB most likely HAS it by having set+ e.g. AA45 or super-20cards-non-nut-wrap 9854 with potential bdfds (though u have 1).

Vs BN/BB having A7/9854 odds for Hero are ~ 21: 25/54 and

Vs BN/BB having A785/9875 odds for Hero are ~ 31: 29/40.

U need to put 43$ extra to potentially (presuming BN stacks off also) win 150$ which is ~29% which you have in best-case-scenario and that is 2nd case. Range of BB is super strong here....

Nb We even did not take into account that someone has AA or 77 - hands that dominate our bottom set almost without bd draws (we do have Khi bdfd and chance to hit King if somehow we dont play vs AA but vs 77). Vs BN/BB having T987/AA odds for Hero are  ~ 7,5: 44/48 which is very interesting not getting into it how realistic it is for opponents to have those hands.



ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

Follow-up: 

Interesting to note the effect of different preflop ranges. If we switch from PJ ranges to PPT x% ranges the result changes significantly:

BTN flats 25%6h ! 6%6h
BB flats 25%6h ! 6%6h

And we stack off against: 

BTN: 25%6h ! 6%6h) : (AA,77,66,T98,985)
CO: (25%6h ! 6%6h) : (AA,77,66,T98,985)

Now we have 33.3% equity and it all looks good. But is it? I doubt it.

All bad AA being removed from the flatting ranges by "!6%6h" explains a lot. In reality, people flat their worst AA. As they should, especially OOP.


unbuwoha 11 years, 1 month ago
Allowing BNT to 3bet wider and BB to 3bet tighter 4way but overcalling looser does not change our equity compared to ZenFish's range.

Giving villain's some A7+GS+ combos improves us marginally:
BN: $FI25 ! $3B8I: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7:(98,85,54,T9,T8))
BB: $FI40 ! $3B4O: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7:(98,85,54,T9,T8))
hero: 22.8%

Allowing BN (faces our cbet first) to stack off lighter with all A7:
BN: $FI25 ! $3B8I: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7)
BB: $FI40 ! $3B4O: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7:(98,85,54,T9,T8))
hero: 27.4%

Allowing both players to stack off with all A7:
BN: $FI25 ! $3B8I: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7)
BB: $FI40 ! $3B4O: (AA,77,66,T98,985,A7)
hero: 40.6% wow!! But I think this scenario is rare after we (unknown) have cbet.

ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

Adding A7 combos with OESD to both players:

BTN: ($PJFI25 ! $pj3b6i) : (AA,77,66,A7:(98,85,54),T98,985)
BB: ($PJFI25 ! $pj3b6o) : (AA,77,66,A7:(98,85,54),T98,985)

We go from 20.3% to 21.3%. Adding all A7 combos to BTN and none to BB puts us at 24.6%.

lofigr 11 years, 1 month ago

I think still not enough for 3-w, plus we need to put significant amount of money(stack %) on event whose estimated probability is max 25% in situation where we already invested some, but not that big chunk of our stack (14%).

Opponents (especially BB) are telling they are VERY strong and if there is spot where we need to fold - I think this should be the one. 

Subjective digression:

I like stacking off where I play HU pot for instance and I need lets say 38% to GII and I have HvR cca 42% odds to win the hand. Still < 50% but pot odds say I should GII cause its EV+ move.

42% >>> max 25%


lofigr 11 years, 1 month ago

I know, quick question Zen (slightly off topic):

Is EV for stacking off applicable:

(a) always in all situations same 

or maybe 

(b) somewhat more when we already put some "decent" % of stack into pot?

Some examples: is it same whether its deep/MW (*) or shallow/HU  (**)....?

(*) EX : hand from this thread

(**) EX: OTF: top set  vs  NFD + OESD 50BB eff

Thanks.

ZenFish 11 years, 1 month ago

Dead money matters, yes. If we have put in a significant % of stack with our bet, we will get much better odds when it comes raised back to us. 

For example, 

Pot is 100, you have 100, Villain shoves, you fold with < 33.3% equity. But if you had bet 50 and he had shoved, you'd get 5 : 1 on the call, and would have to stack off with 16.7% or better.


trondeez 11 years, 1 month ago

Spoiler alert.... (as if this wasn't obvious by the post)

I fold and the button shows, A79T and the bb has 89T7.

Turn was a 6.

I was really expecting to see 77 or AA here, so this surprised me. Especially since this board is rainbow. I am glad that the RIO consensus is the same as mine though. Thanks guys.


seeittwice 11 years, 1 month ago

I agree on the the fold. Wp UL Trondeez.

But would this ever be a call if both players had a very high VPIP, flop aggression

factor and raise CB% ? like 50% VPIP for both villians, button raise cb30% or

more over decent sample. Or is 77 now a more likely so its still a fold?

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