€50 plo 3b pot, bluff river?
Posted by midori
Posted by
midori
posted in
Low Stakes
€50 plo 3b pot, bluff river?
UTG: €39.51 (VPIP: 37.59, PFR: 29.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 144)
MP: €134.72 (VPIP: 55.99, PFR: 20.03, 3Bet Preflop: 5.32, Hands: 595)
CO: €54.79 (VPIP: 32.44, PFR: 21.31, 3Bet Preflop: 7.55, Hands: 949)
Hero (BTN): €50.00
SB: €86.51 (VPIP: 31.84, PFR: 24.08, 3Bet Preflop: 6.37, Hands: 4,338)
BB: €81.06 (VPIP: 53.27, PFR: 22.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.80, Hands: 216)
6 players post ante of €0.10, SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50
Pre Flop: (pot: €1.35) Hero has 3s Ts Kd Qs
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to €1.25, fold, BB raises to €4.00, Hero calls €2.75
BB is a new player on this site. His stats are kinda crazy but it might be a sample size issue, I don't know.
Flop : (€8.85, 2 players) 8s Tc Ks
BB checks, Hero bets €6.19, BB calls €6.19
I flopped really well, so easy value bet. His x/c seems a bit weird though. First off, if he had AA+ss I expect him to x/jam or bet/call, instead of taking this passive line (also I block 3 spades). I think he would play hands like KQJ9 or JT97 similarly at this SPR. Maybe he has hands like AKJ5 or naked AA that is being suspicious (somewhat unlikely though)? I couldn't think of many hands that he would x/c.
Turn : (€21.23, 2 players) 8c
BB checks, Hero checks
Not a great card, but in retrospect I probably should have barreled to get value from draws and AK, etc. In game, I thought there are few bad cards for me on the river, but that doesn't mean I should check this back..
Thoughts?
River : (€21.23, 2 players) 8d
BB checks, Hero ??
Well, if he happens to have AA, he's not folding now. AK might not fold either, since it's a very good bluff catcher in this spot, although I can't be too sure. I still beat hands like bare AQJ5, AJT7 etc. and might be able to fold those out, but tbh I was kinda lost in this spot.
Check back and mostly give up, or fire another barrel?
Loading 2 Comments...
I'm prepared to fire turn as well. I suspect he is on a draw, although not a great one like a wheel draw or a A-high flush draw possibly with straight draws alongside it, as I also expect him to x/jam those. At these stakes I think people have a tendency to scare easily when the board pairs especially when you have already bet the flop. So you might even be able to fold out AAXX with no spades, but I am really not sure about this. You also beat AKXX on the turn and when the board pairs I think villain should be very ballsy to call a 14-16€ bet with only AKXX. Im a novice in analyzing hands, but I hope this helps.
with his stats i think he can also 3bet with many double suited cards , and 8 on the turn is good card for another barrel, after check turn
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