50 HU vs a super aggro opponent(pokerjuice analysis)
Posted by Standing.Wave
Posted by Standing.Wave posted in Low Stakes
50 HU vs a super aggro opponent(pokerjuice analysis)
BB: $50.00
I started out with his opening range of 88% of hands in my calculation
his turn cbet range is around 60%, i gave him a somewhat tighter range of : T2+,J9+,ss+
Vs that range i have 60% equity. Since i am oop and i know he will bet lightly and also stack off lightly, plus i am oop and there are not many good rivers for me at all, i decided to shove.
BB wins and shows two pair, Queens and Tens.
BB wins $99.50
Rake is $0.50
On the turn, i have 60% equity vs his range.
I gave him a stack off range of T3+,and Tss+( means a T and a flushdraw or better)
According to pokerjuice , i have 45% equity vs his stack off range, and he will stack of 40% of the time.
So my ev should be :
0.6018$-0.480.1*100$= +6$
So in that scenario my shove is hugely profitable.
If I assume he calls considerably tighter:
a range of Q3+,Q+:ss,45+:ss meaning Q3 or better, a flushdraw with a Q or 45 with a flushdraw:
he stacks of 37% of the time, and we have an equity of 38%
ev :
0.6318$-0.370.24*100= +2.46$
So we are still profitable.
Tightest range : QT+,Q+:ss
he stacks off 23% of the time, and when he does, we have 28% ev:
ev= 0.7718-0.230.44*100=+3.74$
So i dont know if i played the hand correctly , but it seems to my my play was atleast profitable, since his range on the turn is simply too wide.
I would appreciate any input you have !
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