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50 HU vs a super aggro opponent(pokerjuice analysis)

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50 HU vs a super aggro opponent(pokerjuice analysis)

Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (2 Players) SB: $80.85 (Hero)
BB: $50.00
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is SB with Q 2 5 3
BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00
Villian has been 3 betting 30% and fire any single flop in single raised and 3bet pots.

I started out with his opening range of 88% of hands in my calculation
Flop ($3.00) Q T 3
Hero checks, BB bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00
As discussed above, he normally cbets 100% of the time with the pot sizing. So i call.
Turn ($9.00) Q T 3 2
Hero checks, BB bets $9.00, Hero raises to $36.00, BB raises to $45.50 and is all in, Hero calls $9.50
He fires the turn usually with this sizing with any decent piece of the board.

his turn cbet range is around 60%, i gave him a somewhat tighter range of : T2+,J9+,ss+

Vs that range i have 60% equity. Since i am oop and i know he will bet lightly and also stack off lightly, plus i am oop and there are not many good rivers for me at all, i decided to shove.



River ($100.00) Q T 3 2 4
Final Pot SB lost and shows two pair, Queens and Threes.
BB wins and shows two pair, Queens and Tens.
BB wins $99.50
Rake is $0.50

On the turn, i have 60% equity vs his range.

I gave him a stack off range of T3+,and Tss+( means a T and a flushdraw or better)

According to pokerjuice , i have 45% equity vs his stack off range, and he will stack of 40% of the time.

So my ev should be :

0.6018$-0.480.1*100$= +6$

So in that scenario my shove is hugely profitable.

If I assume he calls considerably tighter:

a range of Q3+,Q+:ss,45+:ss meaning Q3 or better, a flushdraw with a Q or 45 with a flushdraw:

he stacks of 37% of the time, and we have an equity of 38%

ev :

0.6318$-0.370.24*100= +2.46$

So we are still profitable.

Tightest range : QT+,Q+:ss

he stacks off 23% of the time, and when he does, we have 28% ev:

ev= 0.7718-0.230.44*100=+3.74$

So i dont know if i played the hand correctly , but it seems to my my play was atleast profitable, since his range on the turn is simply too wide.

I would appreciate any input you have !

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