50 HU 3bet pot river range v range math check
Posted by oboltys88
Posted by oboltys88 posted in Low Stakes
50 HU 3bet pot river range v range math check
SB: 50 (Hero)
Hero raises to 1.25, BB raises to 4, Hero calls 3
Hey guys. I did some math on the river range v range play. I got ranges using Omaha Ranger. I'm looking forward to someone double checking me. Or just look through if u find it useful.
I used stats from hud: 3bet 75%, cbet in 3bet pots around 40%.
On the flop in 3bet pots he was cbetting less than 50% so i gave him:
TP+GD>, TP1K>, WR, (MP, MPP)+OE
On the turn i gave him:
TP+OE, PR+WR, WR+FD, TP+FD, 2PR+OE, 2PR_14>, FD
So on the river his range is gonna be:
MPP>+SET<< (BLUFFCATCHER/MIDDLING RANGE) 47%
SET> (NUTS) 42%
MPP<< (AIR) 9%
If he bets all air all-in for 1/2 pot he needs to add 3x as many nut hands. alpha = 0.33. From nut hands he should be more willing to check AA first so he bets all nutty hands except for AA. (SET> - AA) 32%.
SB's range on the flip side:
MPP<< (AIR) 30%
SET> (NUTS) 39%
MPP> + SET<< (BLUFFCATCHER) 27%
BB always calls with his nut range so I should make him indifferent to calling or folding his bluffcacthers. Sp ev of a call should be equal to the ev of a fold.
Overall we bet (0.39 + 0.3*b) of the time, where b - bluffing frequency with air.
ev (call) = 0.3*b*(P+s) + 0.39*(-s)
s = 0.5*P
ev (fold) = 0.3*b*(-P)
0.3*b*1.5*P + 0.39*(-0.5*P) = 0.3*b*(-0.5*P)
0.3*b*(1.5*P + 0.5*P) = 0.39*0.5*P
b = 0.39/(0.3*0.4) = 0.325
So we should bluff 32.5% of the time we have air.
c - calling frequency with (MPP> + SET<<) for BB:
Since he bets all air and most of his nut hands then when he checks he will have:
47%+ 9.5% = 56.5% checking range
9.5/56.5 = 16.8% he has nuts
47/56.5 = 83.2% he has bluffcatcher
ev (bluff) = 0.17*(-s) + 0.83*c*(-s) + 0.83*(1-c)*P
ev (check) = 0
for ev (bluff) to be equal to ev (check), c = 0.6
He should be calling 60% of the time with his bluffcatchers.
Loading 0 Comments...
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.
This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.