50 HU 3bet pot river range v range math check

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

50 HU 3bet pot river range v range math check

BB: 118.65
SB: 50 (Hero)
Preflop (0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 8 K J
Hero raises to 1.25, BB raises to 4, Hero calls 3
Flop (9) A T 8 (2 Players)
BB bets 5.50, Hero calls 5.50
Turn (20) 2 (2 Players)
BB bets 14.50, Hero calls 14.50
River (49) T (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Hey guys. I did some math on the river range v range play. I got ranges using Omaha Ranger. I'm looking forward to someone double checking me. Or just look through if u find it useful.

I used stats from hud: 3bet 75%, cbet in 3bet pots around 40%.

On the flop in 3bet pots he was cbetting less than 50% so i gave him:

TP+GD>, TP1K>, WR, (MP, MPP)+OE

On the turn i gave him:

TP+OE, PR+WR, WR+FD, TP+FD, 2PR+OE, 2PR_14>, FD

So on the river his range is gonna be:

MPP>+SET<< (BLUFFCATCHER/MIDDLING RANGE) 47%

SET> (NUTS) 42%

MPP<< (AIR) 9%

If he bets all air all-in for 1/2 pot he needs to add 3x as many nut hands. alpha = 0.33. From nut hands he should be more willing to check AA first so he bets all nutty hands except for AA. (SET> - AA) 32%.

SB's range on the flip side:

MPP<< (AIR) 30%

SET> (NUTS) 39%

MPP> + SET<< (BLUFFCATCHER) 27%

BB always calls with his nut range so I should make him indifferent to calling or folding his bluffcacthers. Sp ev of a call should be equal to the ev of a fold.

Overall we bet (0.39 + 0.3*b) of the time, where b - bluffing frequency with air.

ev (call) = 0.3*b*(P+s) + 0.39*(-s)

s = 0.5*P

ev (fold) = 0.3*b*(-P)

0.3*b*1.5*P + 0.39*(-0.5*P) = 0.3*b*(-0.5*P)

0.3*b*(1.5*P + 0.5*P) = 0.39*0.5*P

b = 0.39/(0.3*0.4) = 0.325

So we should bluff 32.5% of the time we have air.

c - calling frequency with (MPP> + SET<<) for BB:

Since he bets all air and most of his nut hands then when he checks he will have:

47%+ 9.5% = 56.5% checking range

9.5/56.5 = 16.8% he has nuts

47/56.5 = 83.2% he has bluffcatcher

ev (bluff) = 0.17*(-s) + 0.83*c*(-s) + 0.83*(1-c)*P

ev (check) = 0

for ev (bluff) to be equal to ev (check), c = 0.6

He should be calling 60% of the time with his bluffcatchers.



Loading 0 Comments...

Be the first to add a comment

You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.

This thread has been locked. No further comments can be added.

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy